MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (April 11th) | MLB EDGE

MLB Matchup Preview: First Pitch Plays to Watch

Happy Saturday! Today, the MLB serves up some exciting matchups, starting with a day game in Chicago and rolling into a full prime-time slate. We're diving into the best first pitch play opportunities on the board, breaking down key player and pitcher interactions. Let's get into it!

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

Twins at Blue Jays: Byron Buxton vs. Eric Lauer

• Projected Outcome : In Play with a 22.6% chance (fair odds +343)
• Eric Lauer Stats : Throws in the zone 64.7% of the time, generates swings 29.4% of the time, allows balls in play 5.9% of the time
• Byron Buxton Stats : Swings at pitches 55.1% of the time, puts them in play 26.5% of the time

Athletics at Mets: Francisco Lindor vs. Jacob Lopez

• Projected Outcome : Ball with a 52.6% chance (fair odds -111)
• Key Focus : Jacob Lopez throws a first pitch ball 52.6% of the time

White Sox at Royals: Chase Meidroth vs. Michael Wacha

• Projected Outcome : Strike with a 57.9% chance (fair odds -137)
• Michael Wacha Stats : Throws in the zone 72.7% of the time, allows balls in play 21.2% of the time
• Chase Meidroth Stats : Swings at pitches 23.0% of the time, puts them in play 12.2% of the time

Yankees at Rays: Trent Grisham vs. Nick Martinez

• Projected Outcome : Strike with a 68.2% chance (fair odds -215)
• Nick Martinez Stats : Throws in the zone 71.4% of the time, allows balls in play 17.9% of the time
• Trent Grisham Stats : Swings at pitches 14.4% of the time, puts them in play 2.9% of the time

Yankees at Rays: Yandy Díaz vs. Max Fried

• Projected Outcome : In Play with a 27.0% chance (fair odds +270)
• Max Fried Stats : Throws in the zone 64.9% of the time, allows balls in play 32.4% of the time
• Yandy Díaz Stats : Swings at pitches 32.9% of the time, puts them in play 18.4% of the time

Giants at Orioles: Willy Adames vs. Chris Bassitt

• Projected Outcome : Strike with a 69.7% chance (fair odds -230)
• Chris Bassitt Stats : Throws in the zone 69.7% of the time, allows balls in play 0.0% of the time
• Willy Adames Stats : Swings at pitches 9.1% of the time, puts them in play 0.0% of the time

Red Sox at Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt vs. Ranger Suarez

• Projected Outcome : In Play with a 21.3% chance (fair odds +371)
• Ranger Suarez Stats : Throws in the zone 60.7% of the time, allows balls in play 21.4% of the time
• JJ Wetherholt Stats : Swings at pitches 41.7% of the time, puts them in play 8.3% of the time

Guardians at Braves: Steven Kwan vs. Martín Pérez

• Projected Outcome : Strike with a 71.2% chance (fair odds -248)
• Martín Pérez Stats : Throws in the zone 72.7% of the time, allows balls in play 9.1% of the time
• Steven Kwan Stats : Swings at pitches 3.5% of the time, puts them in play 1.2% of the time

Rockies at Padres: Edouard Julien vs. Germán Márquez

• Projected Outcome : Ball with a 53.6% chance (fair odds -115)
• Key Focus : Germán Márquez throws a first pitch ball 53.6% of the time

Rangers at Dodgers: Brandon Nimmo vs. Emmet Sheehan

• Projected Outcome : Ball with a 57.1% chance (fair odds -133)
• Key Focus : Emmet Sheehan throws a first pitch ball 57.1% of the time

Astros at Mariners: Jeremy Peña vs. Luis Castillo

• Projected Outcome : In Play with a 16.9% chance (fair odds +493)
• Luis Castillo Stats : Throws in the zone 58.3% of the time, allows balls in play 13.9% of the time
• Jeremy Peña Stats : Swings at pitches 38.1% of the time, puts them in play 20.0% of the time

Conclusion

Today's MLB matchups offer some intriguing first pitch plays, with several pitchers and hitters bringing unique stats to the plate. Whether it's Byron Buxton swinging against Eric Lauer or Yandy Díaz facing Max Fried , there's plenty to keep an eye on. Dive into the action and enjoy the games!