MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (April 21st) | MLB EDGE

MLB Matchup Preview: Key Plays to Watch

If you're gearing up for some MLB action, we've got a packed slate to dive into. With so many games on the horizon, it's crucial to shop around for the best odds. While FanDuel often posts lines first, you might find better value at DraftKings, Score, or Bet365. Let's break down the key plays you should keep an eye on.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

Astros @ Guardians: Correa vs. Messick

• Carlos Correa vs. Parker Messick
• Projected outcome: In play with a 20.5% chance (fair odds +387)
• Messick's Zone Stats: 72.7% in the zone, 27.3% swing rate, 18.2% balls in play
• Correa's Swing Stats: Swings at 66.7%, puts in play 33.3% of the time

Reds @ Rays: Simpson vs. Burns

• Chandler Simpson vs. Chase Burns
• Projected outcome: Ball with a 58.3% chance (fair odds -140)
• Burns' First Pitch: Throws a ball 58.3% of the time

Cardinals @ Marlins: Wetherholt & Marsee in Focus

• JJ Wetherholt vs. Chris Paddack
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 17.1% chance (fair odds +486)
  • Paddack's Zone Stats: 77.4% in the zone, 38.7% swing rate, 16.1% balls in play
  • Wetherholt's Swing Stats: Swings at 33.3%, puts in play 4.8%
• Jakob Marsee vs. Dustin May
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 15.9% chance (fair odds +530)
  • May's Zone Stats: 55.6% in the zone, 11.1% swing rate, 7.4% balls in play
  • Marsee's Swing Stats: Swings at 13.0%, puts in play 8.7%

Brewers @ Tigers: Frelick & Jones at the Plate

• Sal Frelick vs. Keider Montero
  • Projected outcome: Strike with a 66.7% chance (fair odds -200)
  • Montero's Zone Stats: 66.7% in the zone, 20.0% balls in play
• Jahmai Jones vs. Kyle Harrison
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 25.4% chance (fair odds +294)
  • Harrison's Zone Stats: 88.9% in the zone, 44.4% swing rate, 11.1% balls in play

Braves @ Nationals: Wood vs. López

• James Wood vs. Reynaldo López
• Projected outcome: In play with a 14.7% chance (fair odds +579)
• López's Zone Stats: 71.0% in the zone, 38.7% swing rate, 12.9% balls in play

Yankees @ Red Sox: Rice & Anthony on Deck

• Ben Rice vs. Connelly Early
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 16.7% chance (fair odds +500)
  • Early's Zone Stats: 66.7% in the zone, 22.2% swing rate
• Roman Anthony vs. Luis Gil
  • Projected outcome: Ball with a 50.0% chance (fair odds -100)
  • Gil's First Pitch: Throws a ball 50.0% of the time

Twins @ Mets: Buxton vs. McLean

• Byron Buxton vs. Nolan McLean
• Projected outcome: In play with a 17.2% chance (fair odds +481)
• McLean's Zone Stats: 58.3% in the zone, 0.0% swing rate

Orioles @ Royals: Garcia vs. Baz

• Maikel Garcia vs. Shane Baz
• Projected outcome: In play with a 14.3% chance (fair odds +600)
• Baz's Zone Stats: 57.1% in the zone, 37.1% swing rate, 14.3% balls in play

Phillies @ Cubs: Turner vs. Imanaga

• Trea Turner vs. Shota Imanaga
• Projected outcome: Ball with a 50.0% chance (fair odds -100)
• Imanaga's First Pitch: Throws a ball 50.0% of the time

Pirates @ Rangers: Nimmo vs. Mlodzinski

• Brandon Nimmo vs. Carmen Mlodzinski
• Projected outcome: Ball with a 46.7% chance (fair odds +114)
• Mlodzinski's First Pitch: Throws a ball 46.7% of the time

Padres @ Rockies: Julien vs. Vásquez

• Edouard Julien vs. Randy Vásquez
• Projected outcome: In play with an 18.3% chance (fair odds +447)
• Vásquez's Zone Stats: 70.0% in the zone, 30.0% swing rate

Blue Jays @ Angels: Lukes & Neto's Chances

• Nathan Lukes vs. Jack Kochanowicz
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 24.7% chance (fair odds +305)
  • Kochanowicz's Zone Stats: 74.1% in the zone, 25.9% balls in play
• Zach Neto vs. Patrick Corbin
  • Projected outcome: In play with a 16.1% chance (fair odds +522)
  • Corbin's Zone Stats: 68.8% in the zone, 40.6% swing rate

Athletics @ Mariners: Refsnyder vs. Lopez

• Rob Refsnyder vs. Jacob Lopez
• Projected outcome: Ball with a 52.4% chance (fair odds -110)
• Lopez's First Pitch: Throws a ball 52.4% of the time

White Sox @ D-backs: Benintendi vs. Kelly

• Andrew Benintendi vs. Merrill Kelly
• Projected outcome: In play with a 13.9% chance (fair odds +619)
• Kelly's Zone Stats: 57.6% in the zone, 24.2% swing rate

Dodgers @ Giants: Adames vs. Yamamoto

• Willy Adames vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Projected outcome: Strike with a 66.7% chance (fair odds -200)
• Yamamoto's Zone Stats: 66.7% in the zone

Conclusion

With a rich lineup of matchups, there’s something for everyone in this MLB slate. Whether you're betting on strikes, balls, or balls in play, these insights should help guide your wagers. Remember to compare odds across different platforms for the best value and enjoy the games!