MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (March 25) | MLB EDGE

MLB Opening Night Matchup Preview: Yankees vs. Giants

Alright, baseball fans, MLB is back, and we're diving into one of our favorite betting markets: first pitch outcomes. This is the ultimate quick sweat, and we've got some insights ready for you.

First Pitch Insights

From the 2025 season, we learned some interesting trends about first pitches:

• 51% of all first pitches were strikes
• 37.1% were balls
• 11.9% were put in play

Early in the season, nearly 15% of leadoff batters put the ball in play, showing an aggressive style that paid off for us last year. We're looking to capitalize on similar opportunities this season.

Top of the 1st: Yankees vs. Giants

Pitcher: Logan Webb

• Likely to face Trent Grisham (pending Yankees' lineup confirmation)
• Our model rates this as "no play"
  • Grisham isn't aggressive on first pitches
  • Webb's pitching was too erratic last year for a confident prediction

Projection:

• 56.6% chance of a strike
• 41.3% chance of a ball
• 2.1% chance of being put in play

Bottom of the 1st: Giants vs. Yankees

Pitcher: Max Fried

• Facing Luis Arraez to start
• Fried is known for filling the zone early, throwing 73% in the zone last season
  • Against lefties, he increased to 83.3%

Luis Arraez's Approach:

• Swung at 14.6% across the season, but 32.6% against lefties
• Put the ball in play 20% against left-handed pitching

Betting Angle:

• Fair value for Arraez to put the ball in play: +950
• Any other outcome: +1036
• Avoid bets under these values to ensure you're getting a good deal

Final Thoughts

Baseball's return is thrilling, and we're ready for that first pitch excitement. As always, stay sharp and look for those edges. And to wrap up, here's a spirited "Let's go O's" for good measure.

Enjoy the game and happy betting!