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MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (March 28th) | MLB EDGE

edgely.bet March 28, 2026

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MLB Player Props and Picks

Evening Games (see earlier slate picks below)

❌ Royals vs Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. at Bat

Ronald Acuna Jr. is set to face Michael Wacha, and there's a good chance we'll see some action.

Projection : Acuna to put it in play at 17.8%
Wacha's Stats : In the zone 74% of the time, allowing contact just over half of the time
Acuna's Approach : Swings nearly half the time
Fair Odds : +461

With Acuna's aggressive approach and Wacha's tendency to stay in the zone, this could be a matchup to watch.

✅💰Yankees vs Giants: Jung Hoo Lee vs Will Warren

In this showdown, Jung Hoo Lee faces off against Will Warren.

Projection : Lee to strike at 81.8%
Warren's Stats : In the zone 82% of the time last year, allowed only 9% to be put in play
Lee's Record : Has yet to put a ball in play

Warren's control makes it tough for hitters, so betting on Lee to strike might be the safe play.

❌ foul 😵 D-Backs vs Dodgers: Ketel Marte's Opportunity

Ketel Marte faces a challenging pitcher in Tyler Glasnow.

Projection : Marte to put it in play at 21.9%
Glasnow's Stats : In the zone 62% of the time, allowing in play 14% of the time
Marte's Approach : Swings 42% of the time, putting in play 29% of the time
Fair Odds : +356

Marte's aggressive style could pay off against Glasnow, who likes to challenge hitters in the zone.

✅💰D-Backs vs Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani vs Eduardo Rodriguez

This matchup features Shohei Ohtani taking on Eduardo Rodriguez.

Projection : Ohtani to see a ball at 62.1%
Rodriguez's Stats : Wild about two-thirds of the time
Ohtani's Approach : Rarely chases
Fair Odds : -164

Ohtani's disciplined eye at the plate could capitalize on Rodriguez's lack of control.

❌ Guardians vs Mariners: Rob Refsnyder's Moment

Rob Refsnyder could be a sleeper pick against the Mariners.

Projection : Refsnyder to put it in play at 33.9%
Refsnyder's Record : Put 31% in play in 13 ABs last season
Cantillo's Stats : In the zone 85% of the time last season, allowing 31% in play

Though Cantillo is disciplined, Refsnyder has shown he can make contact, making this an intriguing matchup.

These player props offer a blend of high risk and potential reward. Keep an eye on these matchups as the games unfold!

Early Slate Picks

Ready to dive into some MLB player props and picks? I've got some juicy matchups that could boost your bankroll. Let's dig into the details.

✅💰Rays vs Cardinals: Yandy Diaz in the Spotlight

Yandy Diaz is leading off for the Rays against Michael McGreevy. We're giving Yandy a solid 27.9% chance of putting the ball in play on the first pitch.
Diaz is known for his aggressive start, already going 1-1 this year with a single on opening day.
Last year, he swung at 35% of pitches against right-handed pitchers, putting 19% in play.
McGreevy, on the other hand, allowed 25% of his first pitches to be put in play, and he throws in the zone 81% of the time.
The fair value for this prop is +258.

❌Athletics vs Blue Jays: Jeffery Springs vs George Springer

In this matchup, we have Jeffery Springs facing George Springer.
We're projecting a first-pitch ball at 53.3% likelihood due to Springs' tendency to be a bit wild.
The fair value on this prop is -114, making it a decent angle if you're banking on Springs' control issues.

✅💰Orioles vs Twins: Taj Bradley vs Taylor Ward

Taj Bradley is up against likely hitter Taylor Ward for the Twins.
Bradley is another pitcher known for wildness, and we're projecting a 55.6% chance for a first-pitch ball.
The fair value here is -125. This is another spot to consider if you like betting on pitcher control problems.

✅💰Red Sox vs Reds: TJ Friedl vs Sonny Gray

TJ Friedl will face Sonny Gray in this matchup, and we're seeing a 73.9% probability of a first-pitch strike.
Friedl isn't a big swinger, with only a 5.8% swing rate last year.
Gray was in the zone 78.1% of the time last season, making the fair value for this prop -283.
This is a strong spot if you trust Gray to start strong against passive hitters.

That's it for the early slate. Keep an eye out for more updates as we dive into the evening matchups. Happy betting!