Warsh Makes the Fed’s Reaction Function Unpredictable AgainKevin Warsh on Wednesday put his stamp on his first FOMC meeting by keeping his promise to cut back forward guidance from the Federal Reserve's communications. The post meeting statement has fewer wor…EconReporter·9h ago·5 min readFollowFederal ReserveForward GuidanceKevin WarshMonetary Policy, Unconventionally
Warsh’s first FOMC meeting—a hawkish path that makes Powell the (scape)GOATOn top of the Fed's official objectives — "maximum employment" and "2% inflation" — now sits a third: that economic growth needn't be answered with rate hikes, and perhaps even that a strong economy c…EconReporter·2d ago·6 min readFollowFederal ReserveJay PowellKevin WarshMonetary Policy, Unconventionally
Should the Fed and BoC look through the World Cup employment boost?The important question, however, is this: shouldn't the Fed and Bank of Canada look through such a one-off, short-term World Cup employment boost?EconReporter·Jun 8·4 min readFollowBank of CanadaCanada Jobs ReportFederal ReserveUS Economy
Taking One Last Beth Before the Fed Blackout PeriodBeth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, posted on LinkedIn hours after the jobs report that "today's jobs report reaffirms that the labor market appears to be roughly in balance" and that she "b…EconReporter·Jun 5·4 min readFollowBeth HammackFederal ReserveForward GuidanceLisa Cook
Governor Powell’s First Speech Doesn’t Sound ‘Quiet’Federal Reserve Governor Powell, who vowed to be a "low-profile" Fed governor in support of Chairman Warsh, made sure everyone still heard him in his first speech after handing over the chairmanship.EconReporter·Jun 1·4 min readFollowCentral Bank IndependenceChris WallerFederal ReserveJay Powell
Powell Hands Warsh a Dissent Surge, But Not Really a Divided FedWhat if I tell you the Fed officials actually disagreed more at times during the zero-against vote period than in the last meeting? This is what the FOMC minutes-based Hidden Dissent Index indicates.EconReporter·May 28·4 min readFollowFederal ReserveFOMC Hidden DissentFOMC MeetingJay Powell
It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯40 Years In The Desert [Unofficial]·May 28·2 min readinitial and continuing unemployment claims rose last weekinflation continues to spikeFederal Reserve
Central bankers are pushing back against the ‘War? Sh!’ strategy — why look-through may no longer be a good ideaFederal Reserve governor Chris Waller on Friday cast serious doubt on the textbook look-through strategy to handle the Iran War-induced inflationary pressure — or what we fashionably called the "War? …EconReporter·May 26·3 min readFollowChris WallerFederal ReserveIran WarLook-through Policy
Trump to swear Warsh in as Fed chair on May 22Kevin Warsh will officially take charge of the Federal Reserve on Friday as he will be sworn in as the next Fed chair at a White House ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump, Fox News's Edward Lawr…EconReporter·May 18·2 min readFollowCentral Bank IndependenceDonald TrumpFederal ReserveJay Powell
Warsh’s Forward Guidance ParadoxLet's get this straight: Warsh hates forward guidance. But if we look at the three dissent statements from the Reserve Bank Presidents who voted against the FOMC decision, we can see that forward guid…EconReporter·May 11·6 min readFollowBeth HammackCentral Bank CommunicationsFederal ReserveForward Guidance
‘Sh!’ Powell to skip WAR during his spell in Warsh’s FedPowell announced his intention to stay at the Fed board after his term as chairman ends on May 15. The amount of time he will remain at his governor position, which will only expire in Jan 2028, is st…EconReporter·May 3·5 min readFollowChris WallerFederal ReserveJay PowellKevin Warsh
Are you ready for Federal Reserve Chair Miran? A question on chair pro tem appointmentPowell says he will be Chair Pro Tem as long as Warsh is not confirmed. Is it 100% going to happen?EconReporter·Apr 15·11 min readFollowAlan GreenspanArthur BurnsFederal ReserveJay Powell
This is why the Fed can afford to look through the Iran War energy shockThe vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 — meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This stru…EconReporter·Apr 1·3 min readFollowCentral Bank Look Through PolicyFederal ReserveIran WarStagflation
Why the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility Isn’t for Daily Use: An Explainer"The [Standing Repo Facility (SRF)] rate is set at the top of the FOMC’s target range for the federal funds rate. This combination of an ample supply of reserves and an SRF rate at the top of the targ…EconReporter·Nov 11·9 min readFollowBank of EnglandDemand-driven Floor SystemECBFed's Balance Sheet
The Fed’s ‘leaky ceiling’ problemWhy is the Fed's SRF failing? Top Fed officials called the issue a "leaky ceiling" that doomed Quantitative Tightening (QT). Learn how low bank participation and the leaky floor analogy suggest new po…EconReporter·Nov 3·5 min readFollowBeth HammackFed's Balance SheetFed's ceiling toolsFederal Reserve
If the Fed ends QT too soon, it risks discrediting its ceiling toolsAnalysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at the upcoming meeting this week. The speculation is fueled by Chairman Jerome Powell's speech earlier t…EconReporter·Oct 27·7 min readFollowFederal ReserveFederal Reserve Balance SheetQuantitative TighteningEconReporter Blog
Will QT finish before Powell’s chairman term ends?Quantitative tightening (QT) may reach its end point "in the coming months," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last week. What does it mean? Will QT finish before Powell's chairm…EconReporter·Oct 21·8 min readFollowFederal ReserveFederal Reserve Balance SheetQuantitative TighteningEconReporter Blog
September FOMC Meeting: The Potential DissentersThe Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week. This has been the baseline market assumption since Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, in …EconReporter·Sep 16·5 min readFollowAustan GoolsbeeChris WallerFederal ReserveMichelle Bowman
