The Geopolitical Desk

@news.thegeopoliticaldesk.com.ap.brid.gy

Independent geopolitical intelligence and risk analysis covering conflicts, energy security and the forces shaping the global economy. Read by professionals in […] 🌉 bridged from ⁂ https://www.thegeopoliticaldesk.com/, follow @ap.brid.gy to interact

3 followers0 following40 stories

Longform Stories

Too late, and beside the point: Israel's Armenian Genocide recognition

Instead of being historic, Israel's recognition of the Armenian genocide is clearly opportunistic, and has done little to increase relations with Yerevan.

Jul 8·3 min read·469 words

Joint talks on Hormuz expose diverging interests between Oman and Iran

Often overlooked, Oman also has a voice in how traffic flows through the Strait, and both Oman and Iran will have to reconcile their opposing visions for the future of Hormuz.

Jul 3·2 min read·245 words

Shaking the foundation: When earthquakes disrupt Latin America governments

The Venezuelan ruling apparatus is worried about being weakened politically following destructive earthquakes, and rightly so. Latin America offers plenty of examples of authoritarian states collapsin…

Jul 3·2 min read·327 words

Libyan Presidential Council co-Chair claims he was “illegally” overruled in Intelligence Chief appointment

A political battle has broken out in Tripoli over control of the Libyan Intelligence Agency, which has become a fault line that risks escalating in western Libya, with broader repercussions in eastern…

Jun 30·2 min read·324 words

After the MoU: A long road toward a final deal

The agreement between Iran and the United States is exactly what it says it is, an understanding of the situation. Both sides, however, still have different ideas of how that situation should be resol…

Jun 27·2 min read·370 words

How Iran survived a war it could not win

Years of planning by the Islamic Republic for a theoretical war with the United States was finally put to the test. Now with the ceasefire, both Iran and the U.S. will look at what went right and what…

Jun 23·16 min read·3065 words

World Energies Summit 2026

The World Energies Summit is the global meeting place for upstream leaders. Hosted in London, it brings together governments, investors and innovators from every energy-producing region.

Jun 23·1 min read·139 words

The defeat that broke Tunisia’s silence

For many in the North African country, the national team's loss at the hands of Sweden was the final straw.

Jun 19·6 min read·1160 words

The Boulos process is farther than it looks

Despite clear roadblocks, the U.S. Senior Advisor for Africa has been able to get both sides to deepen negotiations.

Jun 19·2 min read·230 words

A closed deal doesn’t mean an open strait

While many hope the U.S. and Iran are now aligned in regards to opening the strait, the reality is both countries have created two different realities that they refuse to compromise.

Jun 16·2 min read·354 words

Thirst for restraint: Water and the limits to the Iran War

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has long described water as the "strategic commodity" of the Middle East, and the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has highlighted how water has emerged as both a powerful…

Jun 15·2 min read·331 words

Libya Weekly Update (Jun 12, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between June 5, 2026 and June 11, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

Jun 12·2 min read·337 words

Libya Weekly Update (Jun 5, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between May 29, 2026 and June 4, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

Jun 5·2 min read·357 words

Libya Energy Insights (May 2026)

This report provides analysis and insights into Libya's energy sector for the month of May, 2026. A downloadable PDF version of the report is available at the end of the page.

Jun 3·3 min read·404 words

Libya Weekly Update (May 29, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between May 22, 2026 and May 28, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

May 29·2 min read·365 words

Intact but unreformed: Iran after the Ramadan War

The Islamic Republic survived this conflict in more or less the form it entered it. That is simultaneously its achievement and its structural trap.

May 22·2 min read·296 words

After the ceasefire: An Iran War Stakeholder assessment

A special report for Intelligence subscribers that breaks down the positions and possible paths forward for over 20 countries trying to navigate around the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

May 22·2 min read·244 words

Libya Weekly Update (May 22, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between May 15, 2026 and May 21, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

May 22·2 min read·389 words

Iran’s economy under fire

The war on Iran's economy has been running for decades. U.S.-Israeli strikes on economic infrastructure in 2026 brought cascading effects on the country's economy. The result will not be collapse, but…

May 22·3 min read·403 words

The rise of Eastern Mediterranean gas

The Eastern Mediterranean is quietly becoming Europe's most important gas province. America is actively undermining the international order it created. And both stories point to a similar conclusion.

May 17·5 min read·934 words

Libya Weekly Update (May 15, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between May 08, 2026 and May 14, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

May 15·2 min read·374 words

A new Levant: The rise of Eastern Mediterranean gas

The Eastern Med has been an interest for investment for years, but recent geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf are directing more eyes on the region.

May 13·1 min read·35 words

The UN considers sanctions for five Libyan individuals

The UN has recommended sanctions against five Libyan figures. Plus: the Strait of Hormuz nearly collapsed the ceasefire and violence is rising in America.

May 10·1 min read·32 words

Libya Weekly Update (May 8, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between May 01, 2026 and May 07, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

May 8·1 min read·35 words

Libya Energy Insights (Apr 2026)

This report provides analysis and insights into Libya's energy sector for the month of April, 2026. A downloadable PDF version of the report is available at the end of the page.

May 4·1 min read·36 words

The UAE leaves OPEC and the Sahel flares up

The UAE exits OPEC. Islamists seize two Malian cities and kill the defence minister. Iraq gets a compromise PM Washington can live with. And in Washington, a royal visit, an assassination attempt and …

May 3·1 min read·49 words

Libya Weekly Update (May 1, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between April 24, 2026 and April 30, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

May 1·1 min read·35 words

25% of global energy traffic hangs on the Houthis

The Houthis could close Bab al-Mandab and cut off 25% of global energy traffic. Why haven't they done so? Meanwhile, the U.S. blockades Iran, Trump feuds with the Pope, and Massad Boulos quietly resha…

Apr 26·1 min read·45 words

The Boulos process is creating the next Libyan reality

Libya’s long-standing status quo is finally seeing its first potential shake-up in years, which could have major repercussions for the country’s future.

Apr 24·1 min read·31 words

Libya Weekly Update (Apr 24, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between April 17, 2026 and April 23, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

Apr 24·1 min read·35 words

Indirect warfare, chokepoint hegemony and China’s energy dilemma

With global energy demand rising and limitations in supply infrastructure becoming more apparent, China has been looking to reinforce itself in case of future crises, especially with the U.S.

Apr 23·1 min read·37 words

Will Libya have a unified government in 2026?

Technical talks on Libyan unification. A visual investigation into Sudan's forgotten war. And the exclusive finding that BGN, widely believed to have exited Libya's oil market, never left. Plus: what …

Apr 19·1 min read·44 words

Libya Weekly Update (Apr 17, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between April 10, 2026 and April 16, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

Apr 17·1 min read·35 words

The return of Libya’s most controversial oil trader

For months, it seemed like BGN had been pushed out of Libya. However, according to multiple industry sources, the Swiss-based crude trader is still operating through a network of aligned entities desi…

Apr 16·1 min read·43 words

A visual investigation of the war in Sudan

Entering into its third year, Sudan's civil war continues to drag on with no clear end in sight. This GDP exclusive provides maps detailing the progress of the Sudan war so far and changes in territor…

Apr 14·1 min read·45 words

After Iran, Trump needs a win. He might find it in Libya.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and serious questions linger about what the war means for America's global standing. Meanwhile, a quiet diplomatic shift in Lib…

Apr 12·1 min read·56 words

Libya Weekly Update (Apr 10, 2026)

This report covers political and security updates in Libya between April 03, 2026 and April 09, 2026. Clients can download the full report at the end of the page.

Apr 10·1 min read·35 words

Boulos catches second wind in Libya negotiations

The Senior Advisor is set for a budget breakthrough next week, and has reinvigorated talks for a possible political unity deal.

Apr 9·1 min read·28 words

The end of the Middle East

Trump says a deal with Iran is close. Tehran says it isn't. Gas hits $3.98. Ukraine strikes Russia's largest export terminal. And Mohammed Soliman explains why the Middle East as we knew it is already…

Apr 5·1 min read·42 words

The full story behind Arkenu’s “termination”

On the surface level, the cancellation of Arkenu's contracts seems monumental. Reality is much more complex.

Apr 3·1 min read·22 words