xPected Edge #15: Accountability Check-In (Part III)

Welcome to the fifteenth edition of xPected Edge!

For those new to the program, the goal of this series has been to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I have been looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

For those who missed the last two weeks, here is the latest: now that the season is a little bit past the halfway point, I have been taking a look back at how the various featured players have performed over the course of the first couple months of the season. This week, I will be delving into the sixth and seventh editions of xPected Edge. Inspired by Lucas Morel's recent series of tweets, each player I have analyzed will receive a letter grade as I take a look at what I got right, what I got wrong, and how each player has trended since then.

xPected Edge #6: May 6, 2026

Jackson Merrill, SD, OF:

Photo Credit: MLB.com

2026 has been a year to forget for Jackson Merrill. It did not start well for him, as you can see below:

Merrill's Savant Sliders (5/6/26)

And things have not improved much, if at all, in the two months since:

Merrill's Savant Sliders (7/6/2025)

I regretfully ended my analysis of Merrill's early 2026 struggles by saying,

I think this is something Merrill can correct, and given that he's only 23, I am going to advocate for him to fix it long-term. I think there could be a good buy window here, where owners may be frustrated with what Merrill has generated over the last year and change. That said, despite the fact that it's a correctable problem, there's no guarantee when or if it will happen. Until Merrill corrects his attack angle, there will be frustrating slashline results. I'd say his 2026 could look a lot like Anthony Volpe's career to this point: 20 HR and 30 SB with an OPS in the 600s.

In the two months since that quote, Merrill has been able to get into the sweet spot more frequently (moving from the 33rd percentile up to the 75th percentile), but not much else has come with it, though he is still on pace for that 20/30 combo that I predicted, with ten home runs and 18 stolen bases so far. I think Merrill in 2026 is the fantasy equivalent of a bag of Lays Chips: it is probably not what you want, but the calories will help in a pinch.

Ultimately, Merrill has yet to correct the issues that reared their head in the first two months of the season. I highly encourage everyone to go back and read the original piece, because it broke down what I identified as his biggest issues, as well as a potential roadmap to correcting them.

Analysis Grade: A

Player Grade: C

** Jazz Chisholm Jr.** , NYY, 2B:

Photo Credit: MLB.com

Chisholm's Savant Sliders (7/6/26 [Left] and 5/6/26 [Right])

At the time of the first piece's publication, Chisholm had a .213/.302/.328 slash line. That is now up to .223/.307/.393, so a marginal improvement of 73 OPS points. His average exit velocity has also jumped almost two ticks, as have his barrel and hard-hit rates. This upward trajectory has helped make some of the second baseman's performance more digestible. Similarly to Merrill, Chisholm has kept his fantasy value somewhat afloat through counting stat contributions, with twelve homers and a 26 stolen bases (good for third-best in the majors).

Back in May, I wrote,

While it looks as though there are stark differences between Jazz's 2025 and 2026, the profile is basically the same, as the majority of the statistical differences are tied to a common root metric. A high barrel% leads to a high xSLG, which leads to a high xwOBA. Those three stats essentially capture the perceived differences between Jazz's breakout star turn in 2025 and his status as "overrated" and "greedy" in 2026.

Essentially, Jazz currently has a skewed launch angle distribution trending too high, but it appears he's dialing it in as the calendar flips to May. Under the hood, Jazz is basically the exact same player you thought you were getting; it's just taking a bit of time to sort out the kinks. If someone's frustrated, I'd consider Jazz a snap buy.

The improvements that Jazz has made seem to support the notion that even better days are ahead for him, but the Bahamian has cooled off recently, despite improving his rolling xwOBA over his last 250 appearances from .282 on May 6 up to .319 today. I may have been too optimistic about how fast Chisholm would rebound, but it is hard to be too upset about a player on an approximately 25/50 pace for the season, assuming he stays healthy for the rest of the year.

Analysis Grade: B+

Player Grade: B-

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