xPected Edge #6: Merrilly, Merrilly, Merrilly, Merrilly, Life is But a Dream(?)

Welcome to the sixth edition of xPected Edge!

For those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I'll be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

Earlier this week, Baseball Savant posted their swing visualizations for the 2026 season. This tool is one of many in the "Savant Universe," but is overlooked by the general public in favor of the typical Savant Sliders that have generated many copycat systems. What I'm going to break down to celebrate the release of the 2026 set of visualizations is the metrics they show and what we can learn from looking at these objectively cool forms of data visualization.

xPected Edge - Prospects LiveProspects LivePJ Benasillo

Jackson Merrill, SDP, OF

Jackson Merrill was supposed to assert himself as a capital S, Star in 2026. In 2024, Merrill put himself on the map after getting promoted to the majors with exactly zero games played in Triple-A. He set the Majors on fire, with 24 HR and 16 SB supported by a .826 OPS en route to a runner-up finish in the National League Rookie of the Year race. At just 21 years old, Merrill looked like he was building the foundation for a long career as a true star in the league. The Nightwing to Tatis's Batman.

In 2025, Merrill still showed a lot of promise despite injuries. The speed took a step back as he only swiped one bag, but he still managed to leave the yard 16 times in 115 games, ultimately tallying a .774 OPS. It looked like 2026 was going to be Merrill's return to his rookie form and reestablish himself as one of the top young talents in the league.

So far, the early returns have not been great. While Merrill has increased his bat speed by two miles per hour, he's only been able to compile a .645 OPS as of the time of writing. To date, he has 4 HR and 6 SB, so he's on pace for a 20/30 season despite the diminished slash line production. However, for a player whose entire profile as a hitter was based on having an elite hit tool as a prospect through his early major league career, an OPS in the 600s would be a severe disappointment.

So, as always, the question is "Why is this happening?" The biggest difference has been the issue with the "Sweet-Spot %". His plate discipline has been about the same since 2025. His barrel rate has decreased despite the uptick in bat speed. As previously noted, barrel rate is partially tied to exit velocity, so the drop is a little odd, but ultimately, I believe that Merrill's issue is one of barrel accuracy.

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