Quick Hit: Winston's Surge Changes the Game - Coalition Back Above 50%

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The latest Talbot Mills poll has dropped and the message is unmistakable: New Zealand First is surging, the Greens are in freefall, and the coalition bloc is back above the magic 50% mark. The mainstream media will frame this as "National in trouble." They're wrong. The real story is about where the votes are going — and it isn't to Labour.

📌 Key Points

• 📊 NZ First has rocketed to 15% — up 4 points from the last Talbot Mills poll in March, and a record high for the party in this polling cycle
• 📉 The Greens have collapsed to 7% — down 4 points, their lowest result since the change to Chlöe Swarbrick's leadership
• 🔵 National drops to 29% — down 3 points, back in the 20s for the second time this year
• 🔴 Labour inches to 36% — up just 1 point, hardly the surge they need
• 🟡 ACT holds at 8% — up 1, steady as she goes
• ⚫ Te Pāti Māori at 1.9% — below the 5% threshold and sinking. Without an electorate seat, they face oblivion
• 🏛️ The coalition bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) sits at 52% in this poll — comfortably governing

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