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  "description": "💡Quick Hits are an exclusive format from The Good Oil. Upgrade your membership to get every Quick Hit, plus deep dives, intelligence briefings, and more — delivered straight to you.\n\nThe latest Talbot Mills poll has dropped and the message is unmistakable: New Zealand First is surging, the Greens are in freefall, and the coalition bloc is back above the magic 50% mark. The mainstream media will frame this as \"National in trouble.\" They're wrong. The real story is about where the votes are go...",
  "path": "/quick-hit-winstons-surge-changes-the-game-coalition-back-above-50/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-16T19:30:40.000Z",
  "site": "https://goodoil.news",
  "tags": [
    "Upgrade your membership",
    "latest Talbot Mills poll",
    "Subscribe now"
  ],
  "textContent": "💡\n\n __Quick Hits are an exclusive format from The Good Oil.__ Upgrade your membership__to get every Quick Hit, plus deep dives, intelligence briefings, and more — delivered straight to you.__\n\nThe latest Talbot Mills poll has dropped and the message is unmistakable: New Zealand First is surging, the Greens are in freefall, and the coalition bloc is back above the magic 50% mark. The mainstream media will frame this as \"National in trouble.\" They're wrong. The real story is about where the votes are going — and it isn't to Labour.\n\n## 📌 Key Points\n\n  * 📊 **NZ First has rocketed to 15%** — up 4 points from the last Talbot Mills poll in March, and a record high for the party in this polling cycle\n  * 📉 **The Greens have collapsed to 7%** — down 4 points, their lowest result since the change to Chlöe Swarbrick's leadership\n  * 🔵 **National drops to 29%** — down 3 points, back in the 20s for the second time this year\n  * 🔴 **Labour inches to 36%** — up just 1 point, hardly the surge they need\n  * 🟡 **ACT holds at 8%** — up 1, steady as she goes\n  * ⚫ **Te Pāti Māori at 1.9%** — below the 5% threshold and sinking. Without an electorate seat, they face oblivion\n  * 🏛️ **The coalition bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) sits at 52%** in this poll — comfortably governing\n\n\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "Quick Hit: Winston's Surge Changes the Game - Coalition Back Above 50%",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-16T19:30:39.956Z"
}