Systems and methods for generating a phase-resolved ocean wave forecasts with ensemble based data assimilation

Systems and methods for generating a phase-resolved ocean wave forecast with ensemble based data assimilation are disclosed. An example method includes receiving radar data corresponding to an ocean surface, and determining a surface elevation and a surface potential of a portion of the ocean surface. The example method also includes generating an ensemble of perturbed ocean surface data, and applying a phase-resolved nonlinear wave model to the ensemble of perturbed ocean surface data to generate a set of forecast ocean surface data. The example method also includes receiving a subsequent set of radar data corresponding to the ocean surface, and determining a subsequent surface elevation and surface potential of the portion of the ocean surface. The example method also includes combining, by applying an ensemble Kalman filter, the set of forecast ocean surface data with the subsequent surface elevation and surface potential to generate a phase-resolved ocean wave forecast.