Determining error event likelihoods for vehicle routes and route paths

Systems and techniques are provided for determining error event likelihoods of routes of an autonomous vehicle (AV). An example method can determine, for each route from a plurality of routes, a respective set of route paths for the route, each route located within a geofence; determine, for each route path of each route, a first respective likelihood that the AV will use the route path for the route; determine, for each route path of each route, a second respective likelihood that the AV will encounter an error event along the route path during an autonomous operation; determine, for each route path of each route, an overall error event likelihood based on the first and second respective likelihoods for each route path of that route; and determine an aggregated error event likelihood for each route based on the overall error event likelihood of each route path of that route.