Insider Betting on Polymarket
Schneier on Security [Unofficial]
May 8, 2026
Insider trading is rife on Polymarket:
> Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
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> That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
It is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics—and military actions—is orders of magnitude worse...
Discussion in the ATmosphere