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  "path": "/blog/archives/2026/05/insider-betting-on-polymarket.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-08T17:49:01.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.schneier.com",
  "tags": [
    "Uncategorized",
    "gambling",
    "insiders",
    "rife"
  ],
  "textContent": "Insider trading is rife on Polymarket:\n\n> Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—­defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—­on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.\n>\n> That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.\n\nIt is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics—and military actions—is orders of magnitude worse...",
  "title": "Insider Betting on Polymarket"
}