SPC MD 1067

MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Areas affected...Iowa...northern Missouri...northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101835Z - 102100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop by 20-21Z from western/central Iowa into northeast Kansas, spreading across southern Iowa into northern Missouri. Isolated strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will all be possible through evening. DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a lead wave has left an outflow boundary from central IA into northern MO, where temperatures are cooler but dewpoints remain in the low 70 F. West of there, a surface trough is deepening into eastern NE, western IA and northern KS. This region lies beneath west/southwest flow aloft on the order of 40-50 kt, south of the primary wave to the northeast. Visible imagery and surface observations indicate that substantial destabilization is taking place ahead of the front, including the residual outflow area. CU fields are already evident from western IA into KS, and there is minimal capping. Persistent southwest low-level winds with 35-40 kt at 850 mb and heating/boundary layer mixing should easily recover the previously cooled outflow area, where low-level shear may remain locally stronger. Low-level shear, in general, will also increase between 21-00Z ahead of the developing broken line of storms as pressures fall. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with effective SRH increasing into the 200-300 m2/s2 range. Given the lack of capping, 1-2 more hours of heating will support storms near the cold front from central/southwest IA into northeast KS. If storms can remain discrete, a few tornadoes appear likely. Given relatively slow storm movement and HP supercell mode, strong tornado potential may remain localized, along with mesocyclonic significant wind gusts. Hail over 2.00" diameter is expected. The high PWAT environment and lack of capping should support eventual widespread coverage near the boundary with outflows and bowing structures. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39099730 39509712 39879673 40419595 40839551 41709496 42029429 42179288 41919243 41269218 40329236 39809280 39529329 39089448 38769584 38719718 39099730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more