SPC MD 1082

MD 1082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southern Nebraska into southwest Iowa...northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 110651Z - 110845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely for portions of southern Nebraska into southwestern/south-central Iowa. Large to very-large hail and isolated damaging winds are the main risks this morning. DISCUSSION...As a shortwave trough digs into the central Rockies, a surface low is deepening in western Kansas. Regional VAD data shows a 40-50 kt low-level jet advecting moisture into eastern Kansas and far southeastern Nebraska. Elevated storms have already formed in southwestern/south-central Nebraska. These storms have shown some potential for large hail on MRMS MESH. With the influx of moisture above the surface, the expectation is for this activity or additional storms along the quasi-stationary boundary to intensify this morning. Large to very-large hail will likely be the primary threat given the elevated nature of convection. That being said, the boundary-layer will not be prohibitively stable. At least some risk for damaging winds will exist as well. The strong warm advection wind profile will also mean enlarged low-level hodographs. While rather conditional, a tornado would be possible with supercell structures and at least low 70s F dewpoints. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40499425 40039519 39889608 39939763 39959827 39969870 39969870 40199999 40200014 40500040 40840043 41300002 41659915 41829712 41819624 41809440 41589386 41019397 40499425 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more