SPC MD 1030

MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO Mesoscale Discussion 1030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of east central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081929Z - 082200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development increasingly probable by 2-4 PM MDT, including an evolving supercell or two accompanied by the risk for a tornado, in addition to sizable hail. DISCUSSION...Surface ridging nosing southward through northeastern Colorado is beginning to weaken, with 2-hourly surface pressure falls around 2 mb sampled in 19Z surface observations to the immediate lee of the Colorado Front Range. Near-surface flow is veering to an east/southeasterly component, leading to moistening upslope flow north of the Palmer Ridge into the Greater Denver area. Beneath modest (around 20 kt), but strongly sheared, southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, the environment appears likely to become increasingly conducive to supercell development during the next few hours, as the boundary layer destabilizes with continuing insolation. Though mid-level heights are tending to rise, it appears that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Strongest storms along the northern slope of the Palmer Ridge may be accompanied by potential for a tornado or two, in addition to sizable hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40220492 39730257 38580344 39240493 40220492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more