SPC MD 1048

MD 1048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS Mesoscale Discussion 1048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Areas affected...much of the western Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091913Z - 092145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 4-6 PM CDT, accompanied by the risk for large hail and potential for increasingly widespread strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air (including +10-12 C around 700 mb), surface troughing continues to deepen across much of the western Dakotas, downstream of larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreading the northern Rockies. The boundary-layer is only modestly moist, but low-level lapse rates are steepening with continuing insolation and mixing, and it appears that profiles are becoming supportive of CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. As the leading edge of mid-level cooling begins to suppress the elevated mixed-layer within the next few hours, the initiation of thunderstorm development appears probable. As this occurs, the environment appears conducive to the development of severe hail and strong downbursts in stronger storms. Thereafter, through 21-23Z, convection with expanding northeastward/eastward propagating cold pools likely will continue to grow upscale and organize, gradually acquiring inflow of increasingly moist and potentially unstable air advecting northwestward into the Missouri Valley. As this occurs, strong to severe surface gusts may become more widespread, along with perhaps at least some increase in potential for tornadoes along the western flank of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 06/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 48100245 47860083 47300046 45730067 44870114 44440184 44480272 46490262 48100245 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more