SPC MD 908

MD 0908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST KS Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into extreme northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 302051Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible from late afternoon into early evening, before more widespread storms develop this evening. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z LBF sounding) has resulted in strong destabilization across parts of western/central NE, with MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Details of storm development (if any) through late afternoon remain uncertain, with the strongest ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper shortwave trough expected to remain northwest of the area in the short term. However, weakening CINH may result in isolated storm development across southwest NE late this afternoon, in the vicinity of a differential heating zone. Development also cannot be ruled out farther north into the weakly capped environment across central NE. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain modest, with some backing aloft associated with the approaching negative-tilt shortwave trough. However, backed low-level flow is currently supporting effective SRH of 150+ m2/s2, with a further increase possible into early evening. If storms can mature within this environment, the favorable instability and SRH could result in supercell development, despite the marginal deep-layer shear. Any sustained supercell could be accompanied by a tornado and very large hail potential. Regardless of isolated supercell development through the next 2-3 hours, more widespread storms are expected to develop and/or move into the region from KS this evening, with an increasingly prominent severe-wind threat. Eventual watch issuance is likely, though timing will depend on trends regarding possible initiation through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40300192 41910192 42379969 42049907 41549911 41199957 41070002 40300038 39760042 39640079 39710140 39820183 40060198 40300192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more