SPC MD 887

MD 0887 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE RATON MESA AREA Mesoscale Discussion 0887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Areas affected...Central Colorado and the Raton Mesa Area Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290015Z - 290215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will remain possible into the evening hours. Marginal severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be the main threats. A watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been trying to develop along the higher terrain of central Colorado for much of the afternoon. While initial attempts weakened rather rapidly after initial development, the most recent convective tower along the border of Park and Clear Creek Counties has been able to sustain itself. The thermodynamic environment here is unstable with MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, largely owing to modestly steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. Kinematically speaking, the overall environment is marginally suitable for severe storms with modest westerly mid-level flow atop weak southeasterly low-level flow. The result is effective deep-layer shear on the order of 25-40 knots, with variations largely owing to the variability of the low-level southeasterlies. Looking forward, mid-level heights are rising ahead of the strong western CONUS trough/closed low. This, along with the marginal kinematic fields should limit the overall severe threat, with the most likely scenario is convective updrafts being largely tied to the terrain, with weakening as it attempts to move off the terrain to the east. Farther southeast, near Raton Mesa, thunderstorms remain ongoing this afternoon and should persist at least a little bit into the evening. The thermodynamic environment will remain suited for at least marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds, with the limiting factors being the riding midlevel heights and overall weaker midlevel flow (and weaken vertical shear). A watch is not expected for either regime, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 40580623 41100608 41100533 40340485 39680483 38310495 37700427 37370348 36870294 36640377 36800521 37510621 39490623 40580623 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more