SPC MD 885

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282250Z - 290015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest storms in a cluster of storms developing across portions of central and north Texas. A watch is currently not expected, but the area will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicell thunderstorms is ongoing across portions of southern North Texas and northern portions of central Texas. This region is downstream of the western North American long-wave trough and upstream of the central US short-wave trough. This places the area just east of the rising heights noted across the southern Rockies. The overall large scale environment is very unstable with MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg and locally greater than 3000 J/kg. Although, deep layer shear is generally less than 30 knots, but pockets of 25-30 knots will support at least some organization to the strongest of the multicell cores. Additionally, this region is downstream of an upper-level subtropical jet on the southwest side of the large western US trough, which is at minimum resulting in diffluent upper-level flow and may provide some large-scale ascent. Individual cells within this larger cluster have produced isolated large hail around 1-1.5". The current degree of instability will continue to support this threat with the strongest storms. Although overall organization of the entire cluster is currently somewhat limited, the area will be monitored for signs of individual cell outflows merging together and functioning as a single, collective outflow. Should this occur, the potential for some damaging wind may develop as the overall cluster sags south/southeast this evening. Generally speaking, the overall severe potential should remain relatively limited in space and time. As such, a watch is currently not anticipated, but conditions will be monitored. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32440029 33169987 33409802 33129657 32299629 31769635 31409711 31369853 31839984 32440029 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more