SPC MD 823

MD 0823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI Mesoscale Discussion 0823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221006Z - 221200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging gusts remain possible. DISCUSSION...Preceding a midlevel wave approaching the lower MS Valley, convection is evolving within low-level confluence bands in central MS -- where a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is in place. The JAN VWP is sampling a gradually strengthening low-level jet (around 40 kt at 1 km AGL) and an associated clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Despite weak buoyancy, the rich boundary-layer moisture and enhanced streamwise vorticity are contributing to a locally favorable environment for transient, low-topped supercell structures. A brief tornado was reported at 938 UTC southwest of Jackson, MS, and an additional brief tornado and locally damaging gusts will remain possible beneath the core of the 30-40-kt LLJ as it translates northward across central MS. ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32149064 32599053 33638980 33868940 33918887 33738843 33448829 32968837 32178894 31748960 31789013 32149064 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more