SPC MD 812

MD 0812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES Mesoscale Discussion 0812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado Northern New Mexico and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211810Z - 212015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Initial high-based updrafts developing over the Sangre De Cristos and Raton Mesa should gradually intensify as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Isolated supercells with hail are the primary hazard. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage and intensity but a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, regional visible imagery and surface observations showed initial updrafts developing over the higher terrain of southeastern CO and northern NM. Supported by strong diurnal heating amid a broad upslope flow regime south a broad upper low over the northern Rockies, these initial convective cells are very high-based with T/TD spreads of 20-30 degrees suggesting they are rooted near the top of a well mixed and weakly unstable boundary layer. Farther east, more substantial surface moisture is in place with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. As these incipient updrafts are advected off the higher terrain by 30-40 kt of west/southwesterly flow aloft, they will encounter more robust destabilization with SPC mesoanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE present. This should allow for gradual intensification with time/eastward extent. While deep-layer flow is not overly strong, VADs and area RAP sounding show sufficient bulk shear for supercells and organized multicells. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates, hail is possible with the stronger storms. Some damaging wind threat may also evolve given the warming boundary layer. The exact timing and convective evolution remains unclear this afternoon as overall forcing for ascent is weaker than farther north. Recent CAM guidance shows these initial storms consolidating into a couple supercells before drifting east/southeast this afternoon. This should favor a general increase in the severe risk with time. However, the more limited thermodynamic and kinematic environment does cast some uncertainty on the spatial extent and intensity of the convection this afternoon. Given all this, conditions are being monitored for a possible WW this afternoon. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38590293 37880223 36970199 36290212 35740247 35470400 35460474 35690517 37880505 38550521 38800428 38750359 38590293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more