SPC MD 793

MD 0793 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND Mesoscale Discussion 0793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Pennsylvania into far northern Virginia...central Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192140Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with the stronger downbursts. The severe threat is very sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered pulse-cellular storms have matured atop a well mixed boundary layer, characterized by low to mid 90s F surface temperatures and 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear, forcing, and mid-level lapse rates are all quite poor. As such, the well-mixed boundary layer may promote enough evaporative cooling with the stronger wet downbursts to support a damaging gust or two. However, the severe threat is very low, with no WW issuance anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38657827 39607742 40067673 40277597 40097557 39747549 39257579 38837639 38597680 38487721 38427770 38417801 38657827 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more