SPC MD 746

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170808Z - 170945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning across Nebraska. Although an isolated large hail report or two may occur, the overall trend should preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...A west-to-east band of thunderstorms have developed this morning across central Nebraska in the wake of last evening's MCS. More specifically, these storms have developed within a warm-air advection (WAA)/isentropic ascent regime in the 850-700-millibar layer ascending atop the outflow-modified boundary layer remnant from last evening's convection. These elevated thunderstorms will have access to MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and the strongest of the updrafts -- typically early in their lifecycle -- will be capable of producing hail. With time, the continued WAA should support a congealing of thunderstorm updrafts and a lessening of any severe potential. Thus, a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Gleason.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41030113 41590083 41779949 41779807 41429762 41029757 40829823 40790001 40770093 41030113 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more