SPC MD 695

MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC Mesoscale Discussion 0695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101910Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated, low-topped convection developing along portions of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area. With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and magnitude, watch issuance is not expected. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614 40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564 39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973 37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more