SPC MD 550

MD 0550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262025Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for rapid severe thunderstorm development is being monitored across western north TX and southwestern OK. DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations show a trough/dryline extending southwestward from near Lawton, OK to Haskell, TX. A narrow, though deepening, cumulus field is apparent in visible satellite imagery along this boundary. Very warm and moist surface conditions are present ahead of this dryline, with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s yielding extreme instability ~4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Although mid to upper-level ascent is currently lacking, continued enhanced surface convergence along the dryline, increasing westerly flow aloft through this evening, and a colder pocket of mid to upper-level air may aid in convective initiation before 6 PM as peak heating is reached. In addition to the highly buoyant airmass in place, 50-55 kt of orthogonal effective bulk shear will support discrete supercells and a threat of very large hail and perhaps a tornado, especially if any thunderstorm can remain near the convergence axis through this evening as the LLJ intensifies (200-300 m2/s2 SRH). Conditions will continued to be monitored for convective initiation, and a watch may be needed if this occurs. ..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34889847 34489866 33779925 33519955 33149961 32969958 32929913 33049864 33349834 33659811 34119799 34479790 34759787 35049808 34889847 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more