SPC MD 500

MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 0500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Areas affected...northern Nebraska into much of central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230006Z - 230300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly producing damaging gusts, are expected to develop this evening from parts of northern Nebraska across central South Dakota. It is uncertain whether coverage of severe tonight will necessitate a watch. DISCUSSION...High-based storms have recently produced several measured severe gusts over west-central SD, though this activity is rather disorganized. These storms are near a impressive dryline where a warm and very dry boundary layer exists. Visible imagery shows substantial CU still developing along the dryline across west-central NE, with isolated thunderstorms developing over Cherry County. Meanwhile, surface observations indicate dewpoints currently rising into the 40s F in that area, with 50 or above from LBF south. As the upper trough moves into the northern High Plains through early tonight, height falls as well as an increasing low-level jet to over 50 kt will likely support additional thunderstorms, mainly from northern NE into central SD. There is some uncertainty how severe this activity may be as the boundary layer cools and convective inhibition increases. However, the steep lapse rate environment combined with increasing lift and moisture may yield at least a marginal severe wind gust threat. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42080010 41970064 41860180 42120220 42740231 43950188 45010119 45280046 45039913 44149819 42489867 42080010 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more