SPC MD 490

MD 0490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 0490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Areas affected...Southwest into north-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181120Z - 181345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has recently been noted across parts of the TX Concho Valley and Big Country, to the north of a southward-moving cold front. Elevated convection is expected to continue moving east-northeastward to the north of the boundary through the morning, as the favored storm corridor gradually shifts southward with time in conjunction with the front. MUCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg will continue to favor occasional robust updrafts. Rather strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will support sufficient effective shear for at least transient storm organization, and an elevated supercell or two cannot be ruled out. The favorable buoyancy and shear will result in potential for isolated hail with the strongest cells. While convection will remain elevated, strong to localized severe gusts may also occur, in association with gravity-wave-related processes within the post-frontal regime. At this time, the severe threat appears too marginal and isolated for watch issuance. ..Dean/Smith.. 04/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31050220 32409988 33069782 33219701 33169627 31639618 30569904 30160099 30070198 30210217 30640230 31050220 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more