SPC MD 360

MD 0360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Tennessee River Valley into central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042211Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may bring strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts to portions of northern Alabama, Middle/eastern Tennessee, and central/eastern Kentucky over the next 1-2 hours. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms in a weakly unstable environment characterized by 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest mesoanalysis) are ongoing from portions of northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky, with a 47-kt wind gust recently reported at Smyrna Airport (KMQY ASOS). Weak effective bulk shear of only 20-25 kts is expected to limit overall storm organization through this afternoon/evening; however, steep low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km will support at least some potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts with stronger convective cores. Watch issuance is not anticipated given only marginal potential for convective organization and magnitude of the threat. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35368428 34718537 34268654 33978743 33978808 34258817 34858781 35428732 35888684 36378661 37078620 37588595 37748577 38248485 38228370 37808284 36988282 35918364 35368428 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more