SPC MD 300

MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Areas affected...Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310349Z - 310615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms mainly capable of hail should increase through late evening into the overnight. While the need for a Watch is uncertain, short-term trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have steadily increased through late evening across the middle part of Lower Michigan. These storms are occurring near/just north of a stationary/slow-moving warm front, and should further increase over the next several hours via warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent. Additional storm development/persistence may also occur farther south across southern Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana via storms that are developing across northeast Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates are steadily advecting eastward across the region, and strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer will support some severe storms/elevated supercells north of the front. Some damaging wind potential may also exist with any storm development or persistence into/across the southern half of Lower Michigan and/or far northern Indiana, although increasing convective inhibition will tend to be a detrimental factor. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 44608628 44408444 44318308 43728255 43078393 41908473 41398595 41498695 43208655 44608628 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more