SPC MD 86

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south GA into north FL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151709Z - 151845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will develop later this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has continued to become better organized late this morning from southwest GA into the FL Panhandle, with some earlier reported wind damage and occasional embedded circulations noted on radar. The downstream environment into southeast GA and the northern FL Peninsula is currently rather dry and stable. However, continued diurnal heating will result in temperatures warming through the 70s F, while continued low-level moisture transport will allow dewpoints to rise into the 60s F. MLCAPE is expected to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally greater where stronger heating occurs) ahead of the ongoing QLCS, supporting maintenance and potential intensification of this system as it moves eastward. While some veering of low-level flow is expected with time, strong deep-layer flow will continue to result in favorable wind profiles, with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 expected to persist ahead of the QLCS. Persist bowing segments and embedded mesocyclones will pose a threat of damaging wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. A couple semi-discrete cells may eventually develop along the southern periphery of the QLCS, which could pose some threat of all severe hazards (including hail), though this scenario is more uncertain. As ongoing convection begins to approach the eastern portion of WW 8, downstream Tornado Watch issuance into parts of southeast GA and north FL is expected this afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29208305 30898320 31918319 32238264 32128209 31918160 31288137 29948116 29828112 28938170 28738200 28598250 28718290 29208305 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more