SPC MD 84

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151245Z - 151445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of a weak QLCS is anticipated through the morning hours. An uptick in severe wind and tornado potential is anticipated as this occur, although it remains unclear exactly when convective intensity will be sufficient to support a substantial severe threat. Trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...An uptick in reflectivity and lightning counts has been noted over the past 30-45 minutes within a weak QLCS as it traverses the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Very limited buoyancy near the coast has modulated convective intensity for much of the early morning, but recent guidance has been persistent in showing a re-intensification of the line at some point in the coming hours. These recent trends suggest that the early stages of re-intensification may be underway. Surface observations along the FL coast show dewpoints increasing into the mid-60s, which may be sufficient for MLCAPE values upwards of 750 J/kg immediately ahead of the line based on latest RAP forecast soundings. Convective elements within the line should continue to intensify as further low-level moistening occurs in the coming hours. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to sample ample low-level and deep-layer shear, which will support an organized linear mode capable of severe gusts and embedded mesovortices once convective maturation is achieved. Although it remains somewhat unclear exactly when the QLCS will reach sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat, watch issuance will likely be needed at some point later this morning. ..Moore/Smith.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30478668 30768645 31278609 31568592 31748369 31758334 31538318 31128318 30678336 30138379 29968397 29768437 29598482 29568506 29748538 29958551 30098566 30198586 30288613 30318636 30378660 30478668 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more