SPC MD 78

MD 0078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Areas affected...Much of Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 150002Z - 150200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading eastward across Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi tonight. The primary concern will be a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A downstream tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented squall line is tracking eastward along a surface cold front at around 30 kt in far eastern TX. Damaging gusts have been a concern with this activity -- given the primarily linear mode, though transient circulations have also posed a risk of brief tornadoes. Ahead of the line, the SHV and POE VWPs already show a large clockwise-curved hodograph (upwards of 300-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). As a robust midlevel trough continues eastward, this wind profile will be maintained over the warm sector, with additional strengthening of the low-level jet possible. While buoyancy will remain somewhat limited with eastward extent, the favorable wind profile, strengthening low-level mass response, and moist pre-convective air mass will continue to favor an organized line with embedded mesovorticies and supercell structures. As a result, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns (and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out). A downstream tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so. ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30669359 32039315 32709283 32959245 32969193 32909114 32709055 32379018 31879015 31079025 29949062 29619100 29449215 29539292 29689332 29959364 30669359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more