SPC MD 75

MD 0075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of east TX into western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142005Z - 142230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase through the afternoon. Watch issuance may eventually be needed, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has developed across parts of north-central TX early this afternoon, with occasional weak low-level rotation noted along the leading edge of the line. Weak buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates have likely limited the severe threat thus far across north TX, while a persistent capping inversion (noted on the 18Z CRP/LCH soundings and a special College Station sounding) has inhibited development of deep convection farther south into central TX. However, increasing ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper shortwave trough and filtered diurnal heating are expected to weaken the cap and gradually increase warm-sector buoyancy with time. An increase in storm coverage and organization is still expected by late afternoon along the composite outflow/cold front, as convection approaches east TX. Area VWPs generally depict gradually strengthening low-level flow and enlarging hodographs, and this trend is expected to continue as low-level mass response increases and a surface low begins to consolidate and deepen near the ArkLaTex by late afternoon/early evening. The strengthening ascent and effective SRH may result in development of a more organized QLCS across parts of east/southeast TX by late afternoon. While questions remain regarding the impact of poor low-level lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z SHV sounding) on the north and east extent of the severe threat, gradually increasing damaging-wind and line-embedded tornado potential may necessitate watch issuance by mid to late afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32619549 32629478 32619424 32539369 32249346 31309336 30599350 29189384 28949524 29339613 29719677 30359662 31229634 32619549 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more