SPC MD 76

MD 0076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142048Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A discrete cell has recently intensified across Maverick and Zavala Counties, while other more disorganized storms continue to develop near/north of a sagging outflow in the San Antonio vicinity. The undercutting outflow has tended to limit storm duration and intensity thus far, but the Zavala County cell may have a somewhat better opportunity to persist as it moves nearly parallel to the outflow over the next 1-2 hours. Additional isolated cells may develop later this afternoon across parts of south-central TX, as relatively strong heating and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough continue to erode an initially substantial capping inversion. MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are conditionally supportive of organized convection, and some threat for severe hail and wind may accompany any persistent cells through the afternoon. At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated, with the southeastward-moving outflow potentially limiting the duration of any discrete cells. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of the threat renders watch issuance unlikely, though trends will continue to be monitored for development of multiple longer-lived cells. ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29040067 29919824 30029733 29979701 29529690 29079699 27709743 27779815 28080027 29040067 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more