SPC MD 73

MD 0073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Areas affected...Western to central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140957Z - 141200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor favorable for weak supercells may persist across portions of western to central Texas through 6 AM CST. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Intensification of maturing supercells is noted in recent MRMS and GOES imagery to the north and west of the San Angelo, TX area. These cells are becoming established within a somewhat narrow mesoscale corridor where low-level warm/moist advection is overriding cold pools established by prior precipitation/convection, which is maintaining MUCAPE values between approximately 500-1000 J/kg. Persistent deep-layer ascent within the warm air advection regime and ahead of the approaching upper wave, coupled with strong flow aloft (60-70 knots between 6-8 km per the KSJT VWP), should maintain a corridor favorable for supercell development. Based on recent MRMS estimates, these cells should be capable of producing severe hail (most likely up to 1.5 inches in diameter) and isolated strong to severe gusts. Undulation in the vertically integrated ice fields associated with the deeper convective cores casts some uncertainty onto the longevity of any individual cells, but this favorable mesoscale corridor may persist across the region through roughly 6 AM CST. ..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31450194 31680194 31870173 32989934 33089896 33019864 32809846 32539833 32289828 32029825 31819829 31689839 31080102 31040146 31210179 31450194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more