MLB First Pitch Picks Today: Best Bets (May 4th) | MLB EDGE

MLB Matchup Preview: Monday's First Pitch Slate

Grab your coffee and settle in, because we've got an exciting lineup of MLB matchups to dive into. Today, we're breaking down 11 intriguing plays where pitching and batting stats collide for some interesting outcomes. Let's see who's stepping up to the plate and what to expect.

📍Note: always verify starting lineups as this blog is written before most lineups are confirmed using projected starting pitchers, lineups, and batting orders.

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New to this market? Check out our Complete Guide to MLB First Pitch Betting Strategy to understand the data and "fair odds" calculations we use for these daily picks.

Brewers vs. Cardinals: Brice Turang vs. Kyle Leahy

• Projected Outcome: Strike with a 64.1% chance (fair odds -179)
• Pitcher Insight: Kyle Leahy throws pitches in the zone 66.7% of the time, effectively preventing balls from being put in play.
• Batter Insight: Brice Turang swings at just 14.0% of pitches, putting the ball in play 2.3% of the time.

Braves vs. Mariners: Michael Harris vs. Logan Gilbert

• Projected Outcome: Ball with a 55.6% chance (fair odds -125)
• Pitcher Insight: Logan Gilbert is known for his 55.6% first pitch ball rate.
• Batter Insight: Michael Harris is up against a pitcher who favors starting with a ball.

Reds vs. Cubs: TJ Friedl vs. Edward Cabrera

• Projected Outcome: Strike with a 69.5% chance (fair odds -228)
• Pitcher Insight: Edward Cabrera throws in the zone 75.0% of the time, allowing minimal balls in play.
• Batter Insight: TJ Friedl rarely swings, putting the ball in play just 4.4% of the time.

Guardians vs. Royals: Steven Kwan vs. Michael Wacha

• Projected Outcome: Strike with a 75.0% chance (fair odds -299)
• Pitcher Insight: Michael Wacha is dominant in the zone, only allowing 21.1% of balls to be put in play.
• Batter Insight: Steven Kwan swings at a mere 3.1% of pitches.

Orioles vs. Yankees: Gunnar Henderson vs. Cam Schlittler

• Projected Outcome: Ball with a 52.2% chance (fair odds -109)
• Pitcher Insight: Cam Schlittler throws a first pitch ball 52.2% of the time.
• Batter Insight: Gunnar Henderson faces a pitcher likely to start off with a ball.

In-Play Possibilities

Some matchups show a higher chance for putting balls in play:

• Tampa Bay Rays vs TorontoBlue Jays: Yandy Díaz vs. Eric Lauer
  • In play with an 18.5% chance (fair odds +441)
  • Yandy Díaz connects 17.5% of the time against Lauer's 10.0% in-play allowance.
• Miami Marlinsvs.**** PhiladelphiaPhillies: Jakob Marsee vs. Aaron Nola
  • In play with a 15.6% chance (fair odds +540)
  • Marsee's 9.4% in-play rate faces Nola's tight 4.2% in-play allowance.
• Kansas City Royals Vs. Cleveland Guardians: Maikel Garcia vs. Tanner Bibee
  • In play with a 15.0% chance (fair odds +568)
  • Garcia hits 17.0% against Bibee's 12.5% in-play rate.
• St.**** Louis**** Cardinalsvs.**** MilwaukeeBrewers: JJ Wetherholt vs. Chad Patrick
  • In play with a 15.5% chance (fair odds +546)
  • Wetherholt swings 36.4% of the time, facing Patrick's 14.8% in-play rate.
• LA Angels vs.**** ChicagoWhite Sox: Zach Neto vs. Davis Martin
  • In play with a 16.7% chance (fair odds +500)
  • Neto's aggressive 18.1% in-play rate faces Martin's 19.4% allowance.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Jung Hoo Lee vs. Randy Vásquez

• Projected Outcome: Strike with a 59.8% chance (fair odds -149)
• Pitcher Insight: Randy Vásquez pitches in the zone 68.8% of the time.
• Batter Insight: Jung Hoo Lee swings at 26.1% of pitches, putting the ball in play 8.7% of the time.

Conclusion

Today's slate offers a variety of intriguing matchups where pitchers and batters bring their A-game to the first pitches. Keep an eye on these key plays if you're looking to make informed bets. Whether it's strikes, balls, or balls in play, understanding these dynamics can give you an edge. Enjoy the games!