2026 Hobby+ Update 2

Let Update #2 commence! This one brings in the first of the Complex League names to the leaderboards. It's an interesting crop to be sure, but to be honest, most of the interesting real-life names at the level do not have cards yet. There a number of factors that go into that – the younger players only play 4-5 days/week so they're not here yet, the MiLB contraction is pushing players higher levels faster, and in that same vein the players who are still in the Complex are there because they're just emerging now from obscurity. Topps colors by number on both international and draft signings – we're don't have a lot of <100K IFA signers or post 6th Round 2025 prep Draftees yet. Anyhow, that's a lot of words on who's NOT in this update. As for who is in this update? Well, the risers include several somewhat familiar names who are breaking away from the the negative aspects of their profile, and a few really interesting pitchers making their debut.

This update is loaded into the PLive+ App Suite for those subscribed at our 60 Tier. It’s truly a great tool that gives you a nice holistic look into where a player stands for the hobby based on performance, price, and future projection. Take a quick below at the top names!

As always if you have any questions abut what Hobby+ is, and who is and isn't included, take a look at my Primer!

Pitchers

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How long do Mariners fans have to wait before Kade Anderson (2025 Bowman Draft) is throwing games in T-Mobile Park? After two more scoreless outings in AA – I truly do not know the answer to that question. He has to be the next big call-up, right? Perhaps tellingly, he was allowed to work up to 80 pitches in his latest outing for the first time. Two more starts at that workload, and he should be able to get to the 85-90 mark by July. There’s absolutely no performance benchmarks to clear before he reaches the majors – it’s just the workload. He does not need to see AAA (although he may be held there if there’s no opening when he’s first ready). As long as the Mariners continue to contend, I’m putting my pin on July 18 as the over/under date for his debut. The way I’ve written this, you can probably tell I don’t think there’s much to do hobby-wise right now, right? Just...please buy if you see a deal. There’s every ounce of safety here, and plenty of obvious ceiling.

Eight of the top 11 names here are from 2025 Bowman Draft. That’s one more top 11 name than the dominant showing last update. We’re just one more tick in the favor of it just being a fantastic draft for pitchers, and not a fluke. Mason Peters slides up a little to 11 to make it that eight number (as Ben Jacobs had a few starts with command issues, he dropped a bit). But I want to talk about the debuts of Riley Quick and Miguel Sime Jr (who is at #14). Quick is a collegiate first rounder who started at Low-A and a week later than most. So, the numbers of that lower level are still providing a bit of a buoy to his numbers. And one might say that for a player of his ilk, he’s still pitching below his station. But he’s doing very well with what he’s been allowed to give us. It’s a high-30’s K% in High-A, and a BAA under .200. Finishing the 5th inning of a game is his next order of business. After he does that a few times, a promotion to AA is likely in the cards, where we should get a better idea of how…”quick”ly he’ll really be able to move. Sorry folks. Just as I detailed in my Bowman Draft writeup, Miguel Sime Jr has almost no polish. However, his mix is absolutely electric, and he’s fixed his arm slot consistency. It’s a high-three quarters consistently now, and that fastball that gets into the triple digits with a knee-buckling slider, at age 19. It’s the Bubba Chandler starter kit (in a much less athletic body), but the Nationals have pushed him further at a younger age already – he already has two High-A starts under his belt. Sime has a better hobby ceiling of these two, but both are interesting.

The first two AAA starts for Wei-En Lin went just about as poorly as you can imagine, as he was lit up for 5 runs in Las Vegas without getting out of the first inning, then gave up 3 more in one inning in Omaha, all while allowing a .600 average. Then he went on the IL with a shoulder issue. Yikes. So why am I choosing now to write him up? Well, there’s a potential hobby nadir, baby! He is still quite expensive thanks to the Taiwan market. But he’s the only 20 year old at AAA on my leaderboard at all. Hell, he’d be the only 21 year old at AAA on my leaderboard. I was a fan of Lin before he had his first cards last month in 2026 Bowman, and after I wrote him up I knew there was going to be some growing pains if he earned a quick promotion like this. The injury is certainly concerning, but with no information, let’s not overreact to the negative just yet. He’s gotten where he is due to his fantastic command, but there’s only so much that can accomplish by itself. He has to adapt now – learn how to sequence against these more experienced, usually 4+ years older hitters. He also still has physical projection remaining, but that’s a matter for the future. For now, while he’s inactive, watch for the dip.

Tugboat keeps chugging along. Matt Wilkinson (2025 Bowman) is fully back to defying the backend SP projection that he had slid to over the course of last year. He’s up to nearly 50 innings now and he’s shaved a massive .170 SLG off of what he allowed last year, while increasing his K% by 5. If you want a potential mid-rotation arm with an everyman body, I can get on board with that projection at this point. His cards, considering how easy of a guy he is to root for, are still at a solid price point.

Hitting Skill

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This update only covers through June 13, but Juneiker Caceres (2024 Bowman Chrome) is still, as of the morning of June 16, running a streak of seven straight multi-hit games. But, he’s been really good this year even without that outburst. I almost wrote about him in this section last update (just as I’m almost writing about Johan De Los Santos in this update). He’s currently running a contact rate over 90%. At Low-A. At age 18. With a .336 BABIP. And an ISO over .200. That last part is absolutely buoyed by his latest hot streak where he has 6 XBH. But the rest is really just organic growth from where he was previously. He could absolutely be the next savant-level hitter to rocket through the minors quickly like Kevin McGonigle or Colt Emerson. He’s not there yet, and the history of the Guardians producing MLB quality but power-vacant players does loom here. Caceres’ high GB% leaves that as a legitimate concern. But I’m in on him. His prices have skyrocketed this year, but if you believe his tool is as good as he’s been showing this year, and you think he can be a 15-20 HR bat? There’s still plenty of room to grow.

Emilien Pitre appears nowhere but here on any leaderboard. He’s definitely not a strong hobby name – having no power at all will do that, but all the other underlying aspects of his game are average or better. Pitre fits an archetype that’s undervalued at lower levels, and he’s been there for longer than expected because his bottom line hadn’t been quite good enough. Taken in the 2024 Draft from Kentucky and included in 2025 Bowman, he’s always run a strong contact rate (79%) with some base-stealing ability (21/29 SB). But this year in his return to High-A he pushed it to an elite contact rate (84%) with an improved base-stealing ability (23/29 SB in way less games). That earned him a promotion to AA this past week. With his strong defensive ability at 2B to go with this emergent performance, I don’t think it’ll be too long before the hobby picks up on him as a name to take a look at. I'm not meaning to say his autos ever even hit the $25 mark. But in writing about him here, I am saying there could be a peak at $15 in the next year, and right now the market is bearing that as over 100% profit. Now, this isn’t my favorite thing to do in the hobby – he’s not all that fun of a player – buying solely for the flip is not for me. But I have to call out that there is this solid growth potential in the near future.

Spencer Nivens (2023 Bowman Draft) had a rough year last year after hitting 20 HR in High-A in 2024. It’s not who he was previously, but when you’re considered a fringy bat it’s just so much easier to believe that "looking rough” is the new normal when faced with increased competition. Well, Nivens is proving that to be not the case. His batted ball profile has never indicated that he hit for a low average – it’s been an average or better contact rate throughout with a solid amount of line drives. It’s all approach related. He’s never been an aggressive hitter, but he’s figured out that passivity suits him. He cut back his swing% early in counts substantially, while lowering his leg kick. He’s trusting his ability to make contact, trusting that he has the ability to catch up to anything and do damage. And that, folks, has resulted in a higher contact rate than ever, a higher BB% than ever, and a solid XBH%. It’s always damage that’s his intent – he’s not a no-power guy by any means. That 20 HR season proves that alone. After a later start this year he’s debuting on my board in this update with a SLG near .500. He may not project as a 20 HR bat anymore with this new approach, but he is looking more like a solid corner OF piece. And with over 600 PA at AA already, he’s due for a promotion any day. With a base auto well under $10 and just a general lack of interest in his cards, I’ll be looking to scoop up a few pieces. He has a bit of a lower floor because he’s not a strong runner or defender, but at a similar price point, I’m buying him over Pitre because there’s a bit more hobby upside.

Age-Dependent Power

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As we get deeper into the Complex season, this particular leaderboard will be populated more and more by Complex players as they debut for me. The biggest shock to me is that it’s Cristian Arguelles (2025 Bowman Chrome) that makes his debut on the top. I mean, he did hit .422 last with a strong ISO last year. But as a DSL repeater, it felt a little fluky, albeit with some serious profile ascension. I expected him to maybe be a Top 30 Complex player this year. But his 177 wRC+ is higher than any other player in the Complex with Bowman cards by a large margin. He’s maintained every bit of the plate maturity he showed in the DSL last year, and translated it all opportunistically to a fantastic 16 XBH in 32 games. Still, I want to caution that this is not a big power profile – he is a hit-first prospect. But hit-first players of his ilk run into 20 HR seasons on the reg, assuming he does indeed pan out. He does not run an absurdly high contact rate – he’s just a really good barrel manipulator who drives the ball well. He could be even better if he elevates the ball a little more. The negative side of his game is that long-term, he’s a corner OF. He likely will not have the speed to stick at the 8, and he’s not a base-stealing threat either. He’s also 19 in the Complex in a Rockies system that’s not particularly strong. With the numbers he’s putting up, if they thought highly of him he would have been promoted to Low-A by now. Or, the Rockies are just not a good org. As such, with his cards having shot up to the $25-30 range, I’m not a buyer at present.

It’s not common for a player taken as high as 9th overall to begin a first full season in the Complex, but that is the reality of Steele Hall (2025 Bowman Draft). Although the bottom line of 20 XBH (7 HR) in 33 games is quite impressive, and even his average is good, I now understand why. His swing is a complete work in progress. At this lowest possible level for a draftee, he’s managing a contact rate of just 68%. If it’s going to be that low, he’d better have some elite power and approach. He has neither of those things. He’s being actively reigned in on his swing decisions, which had led to a high BB%, but his whiff issues, if he were moved to Low-A, would be a major issue. For now none of this should hold any bearing on his hobby status (and the impressive surface level stuff has kept his cards afloat). He’s just more raw than his fellow prep SS counterparts, but he still has elite speed, a legit shot stick at the position, and should remain a dynamic offensive force as he develops.

In my next writeup below you’ll see me throw a caveat on a HR benchmark for Josiah Hartshorn. That’s not needed for Jose Anderson (2025 Bowman Chrome) – he leads all teens in longballs with 16. By three. Of course, there’s all the fear in the world with him that he’ll never hit enough. Even through this success in his power he’s hitting just .184, has a SwStr% over 17, a contact rate below 60%, and a K% over 40. He sells out for fly balls too much, and really needs a swing change. There’s a long road to hoe for him to make it onto any real prospect map. But man, if he ever finds balance, there’s a ton of power to be had. He just needs to change the way in which he accesses it before we can determine any real ceiling. If you can get a base auto for a single-digit dollar amount, he’s probably worth the speculation.

Hobby+

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To paraphrase Luke Wilson’s line in Anchorman, this is getting to be ri-gosh-darn-diculous. Josiah Hartshorn (2025 Bowman Draft) now has 8 HR in High-A. Braylon Payne and Eduardo Tait are also teens who have hit that mark at the level, but the difference with Hartshorn? He’s done it in 64 AB’s. He’s also hitting over .400 at the level. Nobody of any age with 50 AB’s or greater is doing (or has done) that at the level this year. His cards absolutely deserve to be hitting new highs every day at this juncture. At the same time, there’s no stability with his prices, so check for deals!

I’m not telling anyone anything new about Eli Willits (2025 Bowman Draft), but he’s pretty good at baseball. He rode a 15-game hitting streak to a High-A callup, then kept hitting in his first week with increased power output. That results in his being one of the biggest risers in this update and has now settled in among the elites where he truly belongs.

The same goes for Lazaro Montes (2023 Bowman). The power-centric consensus top 25 hobby prospect has slugged 8 HR since the last update to bring his season total to 20 already, putting to rest (for now) any doubt that he’ll be able to get away with a lower contact rate. He’s tracking to debut at age 22 next year, perhaps sooner if he sustains this heater.

There hasn’t been an eye-popping HR outburst or super-high batting average since my last update, but Jaison Chourio (2022 Bowman Chrome) is my second biggest riser. He was hot, no doubt about that – it was a .364./.451/.773 since my last update – but 4 HR isn’t a ton. But it did triple his season total. See, this year Chourio had previously just continued to show his future plus hit tool potential, while returning to the type of pop he showed in 2024 in Low-A. It just wasn’t over-the-fence pop. That remains mostly true, but it’s a fantastic sign that he's continued to hit a solid amount of XBH since his promotion to AA. It’s even better performance-wise than he was early in the year. This could end up being the breakout year we’ve been waiting for when all is said and done. I think his autographs being seated in the $30-40 range is about right for now, but if this does end up being a breakout, today’s buyers will be very happy in short order, even considering the Cleveland penalty.

Also at AA Akron, Alfonsin Rosario (2024 Bowman) is my single biggest riser. The future of Cleveland’s outfield looks quite bright. In the time since my last update, not only did Rosario hit 6 HR (doubling his total to 12) and hit .357, but he cut his season strikeout rate from over 40% to under 35%. It’s baby steps in the plate discipline and contact department that still definitely need to be proven over a longer time period, but if this is the ceiling of who he can be? We’re talking about a 30+ HR RF prototype bat. I’m not quite to the point of being willing to commit to a buy personally on him, but I’m risk averse at his current price point. If you’re the gambling type, he’s a solid buy right now. Don’t wait. The Cleveland penalty will not apply for a player like this.

Sleeper

I already gave a few solid sleepers in the hitting skill section, so here I’ll highlight a player who could not be further from that leaderboard. Anthony Huezo is a speed and power threat with big K issues, but he’s slowly getting better across the board in that regard. He’s 20 in Low-A, but as a former 12th Round pick, slower growth was always the expectation with him, despite the weird short-term promotions the Astros have jerked him around with. Since my last update, he’s put up numbers similar to the two Cleveland prospects above (again, Huezo is 2 levels lower), with a very respectable 22 K%. More notably, his autographs are less than half the price of those two if you’re patient enough to find them. That’s an area in which I’m more than willing to take on the risk.

Conclusion

We’re starting to see some Complex standouts creep into the leaderboards. That’s interesting because the hobby is so youth-centric. However, organizations are pushing their top talent faster than ever, so I’m eager to see who does get that push, and who doesn’t. We want our studs to the majors quickly after all. So all those raw 2025 Draftees and DSL performers? In the next 3-4 updates, it’s almost a disappointment if they’re not pushed to Low-A. I’m eager to see how that aspect unfolds. Until next time, collect what you love!