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  "description": "PJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.",
  "path": "/xpected-edge-10-honey-nut-chourios/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-04T02:12:00.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.prospectslive.com",
  "tags": [
    "xPected Edge #9: Much Ado About MartinPJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.Prospects LivePJ Benasillo",
    "Jackson Chourio",
    "Tom Gates",
    "Subscribe now"
  ],
  "textContent": "Welcome to the tenth edition of xPected Edge!\n\nFor those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I will be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days, or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent level.\n\nxPected Edge #9: Much Ado About MartinPJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.Prospects LivePJ Benasillo\n\n### Jackson Chourio, MIL, OF:\n\nJackson Chourio's Savant Sliders (2026)\n\nPLive's own Tom Gates submitted a special request for me to look into Jackson Chourio's confounding 2026. I expected this season to be a massive breakout year for the 22-year-old, and that was a portion of my motivation when I drafted him as my first-round pick in the PLive Staff Dynasty League at 14th overall.\n\nIn some ways, Chourio has looked like the same hitter he has always been. He has produced a 111 OPS+ in 2026, not a far from his career 114 OPS+; his .755 OPS is also one productive series away from matching his career .778 line. In 98 at-bats, Chourio has driven two homers out, and swiped five bags. If the outfielder were to play every game for the rest of the season, he would be on pace for eleven home runs and 28 stolen bases, a far cry from the 20/20 floor he set for himself with his first two campaigns. Even adjusting for the time missed, Chourio would only be on pace for 14 home runs if he had not battled any injuries this year, and was able to play a full 162 games.\n\nSo, what has changed? What explains the power outage for a player who was thought by many to be one of the new faces of MLB's youth movement? Interestingly enough, Chourio has actually increased his bat speed from 2025 to 2026, adding about half a mile-per-hour. While he has yet to play enough games or log enough at-bats to qualify for many official metrics, one can also see that Chourio is actually making better contact this year. His average exit velocity has jumped almost four MPH. His hard-hit rate has jumped 6.2% as well.\n\nJackson Chourio's Savant Sliders (2025)\n\nWhy have Chourio's results not been great, then? Well for starters, his plate discipline metrics have not trended in the same direction. He has marginally improved his walk rate (up 3.3% from 2025), but that has been paired with a 7.5% rise in his K-rate. As noted previously in this article series, strikeout rate is highly weighted in any xStat from Baseball Savant. That heavy increase in strikeouts drags down Chourio's xBA and xwOBA despite his high end xSLG through the season's early going.\n\n## Sign up for Prospects Live\n\nYour one stop shop for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball, MLB Draft, Baseball Card & MiLB Baseball content. Blending Data & Scouting into our Player Evaluation\n\nSubscribe\n\nEmail sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.\n\nNo spam. Unsubscribe anytime.\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "xPected Edge #10: Honey Nut Chourio's",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-04T10:56:00.524Z"
}