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  "description": "PJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.",
  "path": "/xpected-edge-9-much-ado-about-martin/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-27T10:43:30.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.prospectslive.com",
  "tags": [
    "xPected Edge #8: Who’s That Pokemon? It’s Misorowski!PJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.Prospects LivePJ Benasillo",
    "Davis Martin",
    "rock, paper, scissors, lizard, Spock",
    "xPected Edge #7",
    "Cam Schlittler",
    "Nolan McLean",
    "Chase Burns",
    "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
    "Gavin Williams",
    "Chris Sale",
    "Paul Skenes",
    "Parker Messick",
    "Subscribe now"
  ],
  "textContent": "Welcome to the ninth edition of xPected Edge!\n\nFor those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I will be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days, or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent level.\n\nxPected Edge #8: Who’s That Pokemon? It’s Misorowski!PJ Benasillo digs into the data and unearths some fantasy gold for your dynasty teams.Prospects LivePJ Benasillo\n\n### Davis Martin, SP (CWS)\n\nDavis Martin Savant Sliders (2026)\n\nThe unheralded Davis Martin entered 2026 as an absolute afterthought, and from seeing the image of his 2025 Savant sliders below, it is not hard to see why.\n\nEssentially every single metric hinted at a pitcher who was at best adequate, but was, in all likelihood, waiver wire fodder. His 2025 campaign resulted in an ERA of 4.10, an xERA of 5.13, a FIP of 4.64, and an xFIP of 4.57. None of these metrics seemed indicate that success was coming this year, and yet here we are on May 27th, with Martin boasting an ERA of 2.04 that is mostly supported by other ERA estimators like xERA (3.55), FIP (2.29), xFIP (2.83), and SIERA (2.94).\n\nHas there been a massive mechanical overhaul? Not particularly. His extension is within one inch of last year. He also has not shifted his arm angle significantly, with 2026 representing only a two degree shift from last year. Is he throwing harder? Nope.\n\nThe biggest difference seems to be mostly based in his pitch mix and usage, as you can see from the plots below.\n\nSide by Side Pitch Plots and Usage Rates\n\nIn 2025, Martin was trying basically anything to get outs. He threw threw seven varieties of pitches. This year he has thrown six pitches, but he has also flattened the distribution of when those pitches are used. His four seam usage has dropped by seven percent, as has his changeup usage. He still throws his slider/cutter combo roughly the same amount (24% across both pitches in 2025, versus 30% in 2026), but the distribution between those two pitches has evened out (22% and 2% in 2025, as opposed to 16% and 14% in 2026).\n\nHow those pitches interface with one another is also interesting. For starters, those pitches are tunneled extremely well. There is essentially no separation between where those pitches are released.\n\nAdditionally, all of the pitches bleed together in both velocity and movement.\n\nSo between those two factors, it is nigh impossible for a hitter to get an early tell about what pitch is coming out of Martin's hand. There is no early warning about what direction the pitch will move, nor how quickly it will get there. Ultimately, the mental game between Martin and hitters has evolved from rock, paper, scissors into rock, paper, scissors, lizard, Spock. In xPected Edge #7, I broke down how the arsenal shift that Cam Schlittler unleashed this season has led to his stellar results so far in 2026. Martin is succeeding through similar means, despite inferior stuff.\n\nI have previously detailed how K-BB% is often a quick analytical shorthand to explore how effective a pitcher has been. Martin has been excelling in that regard as he currently has the 8th best mark at 22.4%. He is ahead of significantly more touted and highly-valued pitchers like Nolan McLean, Chase Burns, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.\n\nTo some degree, the fact that his peers as far as performance in 2026 are names like Gavin Williams, Chris Sale, and Paul Skenes reveals exactly how good Martin has been this year. As noted before, most of the ERA estimators expect this to continue in some fashion, partially on the basis of how few free passes Martin has issued so far.\n\nAs it stands right now, it seems as though Martin will continue to succeed so long as he keeps hitters off balance and limits walks. If he can do that, the results should look similar to those of his AL Central compatriot, Parker Messick. The profiles here are ultimately quite similar. If your league mates are doubting in the long term viability of Martin, I would try to make a move to buy, with a particular focus on 2026. Beyond that, it is hard to forecast what Martin could look like. There is plenty of development that could happen. If Martin adds velocity to his pitch mix, things could get spicy quickly as a late career breakout. Ultimately, I would expect this level of performance to cool off as the year progresses, but settle into a mid-3s ERA with a solid track record of quality starts.\n\n## Sign up for Prospects Live\n\nYour one stop shop for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball, MLB Draft, Baseball Card & MiLB Baseball content. Blending Data & Scouting into our Player Evaluation\n\nSubscribe\n\nEmail sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.\n\nNo spam. Unsubscribe anytime.\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "xPected Edge #9: Much Ado About Martin",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-27T10:43:30.929Z"
}