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  "description": "Welcome back to Hobby+! With our 2026 Bowman Preview in the books I've cleared up time to get everything ready to track all these lovely prospects throughout the summer. It's a few weeks late for initial ranks, but we're still in a pretty fluid state – there's no players from Complex Leagues on this board at all yet obviously. Pitchers were introduced into Hobby+ as well, but explaining the novelty of that will have to wait for the next update, as the data is still too limited. We've got some ne",
  "path": "/2026-hobby-early-season/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-22T17:01:44.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.prospectslive.com",
  "tags": [
    "PLive+ App Suite",
    "Primer",
    "Full Leaderboard",
    "Caden Bodine",
    "Kane Kepley",
    "Jacob Berry",
    "Franklin Arias",
    "Caleb Bonemer",
    "Ethan Holliday",
    "Theo Gillen",
    "Braylon Payne",
    "Eric Hartman",
    "Devin Fitz-Gerald",
    "Jacob Gonzalez",
    "Ethan Salas",
    "Ralphy Velasquez",
    "Isaiah Drake",
    "Malcolm Moore",
    "Axiel Plaz"
  ],
  "textContent": "Welcome back to Hobby+! With our 2026 Bowman Preview in the books I've cleared up time to get everything ready to track all these lovely prospects throughout the summer. It's a few weeks late for initial ranks, but we're still in a pretty fluid state – there's no players from Complex Leagues on this board at all yet obviously. Pitchers were introduced into Hobby+ as well, but explaining the novelty of that will have to wait for the next update, as the data is still too limited. We've got some new names near the top, including the #1 guy being from the most recent Bowman release. With data as of 5/18, let's get into it!\n\n2026 Bowman players will be included in the PLive+ App Suite very shortly for those subscribed at our 60 Tier (likely 5/23). Take a little peak here – it’s truly a great tool that gives you a nice holistic look into where a player stands for the hobby based on performance, price, and future projection. I'll note that the pitching scores you see are still the 2025 numbers. As noted above, there's not enough pitchers with significant innings to run a leaderboard just yet.\n\nMy Primer will be re-done to include pitchers in the near future, but for now, last year's will suffice to answer any questions as to what Hobby+ is, and who is and isn't included.\n\n## Hitting Skill\n\nFull Leaderboard\n\nA bit funny that both 2025 Coastal Carolina draftees of significance were slow-rolled out to Low-A (Jacob Morrison being the other, who didn't even debut until May). Caden Bodine (2025 Draft), who is #1 on the leaderboard here, was at that level because his arm is just not very good behind the plate. If a 22 year old is only throwing out 20% of runners in Low-A, even with being outstanding at other aspects of defense, there has to be a lot of offensive deodorant. But Bodine certainly showed out in his own way! It’s not big power, and that keeps him from being too high in Hobby+ overall, but striking out in under 5% of the time will get him high on the hitting skill board 8 days a week. I imagine that this is the highest that we’ll see him this year, but just keep in mind that there is polish here at the plate. I don’t think there’s anything predictive to take away from his Low-A experience. Just keep an eye out.\n\nKane Kepley has just come on recently, just doing Kane Kepley things. Good luck beating him on, well, any pitch. It’s just an extremely polished bat. He knows how to attack any pitch he swings at, and if pitchers aren’t going to throw him strikes….that’s OK too. He’s walked 10% more than he’s struck out thus far. Very impressive. He’s showing himself to be the top-of-the-order terror we hoped he would be, which extends to the basepaths as well. I wonder how long he’ll still be in High-A. It’s not a super ideal hobby profile as there’s very little power, but if he continues to show this type of dynamism, Cubs fans are going to latch onto him more than they already are.\n\nNever did I think that I'd be writing about a collegiate player from the 2022 Draft as having hobby relevance in 2026, especially for a piece that only included non-debuted players. But here I am, writing about Jacob Berry (2023 Bowman). First of all, yes, the guy is 25 years old and is not a positive defender – it's only his arm that's good. But man, his contact rate (which has always been good) in AAA this year has risen to an elite level as he's lowered his launch angle. Sure, he's giving up the dream of ever having much over-the-fence pop in doing so. But he's never produced the type of exit velocity that dictated even average power as a pro. That's not something that's been in the cards for several years. But if you add in his aggression and acumen for stealing bases (it's really not great speed), there does look like some emergent value for the Marlins, whenever they see fit. His cards aren't quite a free square, but they're close. Throw an offer out while he's still in AAA – maybe you'll be able to get a piece that'll double in price at call-up?\n\n## Age-Dependent Power\n\nFull Leaderboard\n\nHello ‘old’ friend. 2025 Bowman’s Franklin Arias returns to the leaderboard to open 2026 after fading down the stretch (and off the Top 20) to end last year. But it’s a bit of a different story now, as you’ll notice I’m writing about him in the Age-Dependent Power section. Arias has always been “just” a contact hitter, but now? His ISO is up by over .150 from last year. His contact rate has gone down a little in order to affect that change, but not in a way that’s impacted his bottom line. In fact, it’s quite the opposite – his average has shot up by over .050 to go with it. That is what happens when you hit the ball on the ground 10% less when you have a bit of thump in your bat. It’s a direct flip to fly balls in his case, and they're all with equal quality as to what they were previously. That higher percentage of quality fly balls has him already just 1 HR short of his career high, 30 games into the season. Once again, we’re talking about a guy who’s universally regarded as one of the best prospects in a rabid fanbase, so there’s not much to do except to pay the market value.\n\nCaleb Bonemer (2024 Bowman Draft) already has a career high 13 HR (in the formula, 14 already now) while maintaining a BB% in the mid-teens. That’s more HR than anyone in Hobby+ not named Jacob Gonzalez, and Bonemer is only 20 years old, friends. However, he also has a contact rate that’s slipped to the mid-60’s. That’s a mark that’s untenable for anyone except Aaron Judge. It’s really no mystery as to why he’s still at High-A. But when you’re a year young for the level and slugging over .600 with an OBP over .400, that’s some pretty intense deodorant. He’s like the 16 year old super-popular kid walking into the junior prom drenched in drakkar noir. For better or worse, he’s got all the attention of everyone now. He’s just got to prove he’s worthy of it. I think he will, but he clearly needs some more time in Winston-Salem. I’m mostly putting a pin in him for now.\n\nNobody really needs me to write about Ethan Holliday. There was a clear corner turned right around when I wrote about him for our 2026 Bowman preview, and that prevented any sort of possible hobby trepidation. I’ll just note that while his torrid month has brought the type of power where nobody cares about what lies beneath, his contact rate has held up in the low-70’s even though his K% has spiked into the 30’s in May, and his BB% has dropped to the 12% range in that time. So it’s fair to think…he’s still adjusting.\n\nThere’s not much difference between Theo Gillen and Braylon Payne (both 2024 Draft), except that Payne is a year younger and Gillen has better surface stats. It’s fair to say Gillen is a touch better under the hood as well, but there is some luck in his .400 BABIP. That’s tough for anyone, but there's just no way a guy who puts the ball on the ground as much as he can sustain that. Of course, a lot of those grounders are absolute piss missiles, and it’s not an egregiously high rate. He’s still making a mark as one of the best young complete-ish power hitters in High-A. And then Payne is the best teen power hitter in High-A (if you give me Eric Hartman, as while he’s 19 now, it’s his age-20 season). His profile is not as complete as Gillen’s, but it’s a drastic improvement from last year at, also like Gillen, at a new level. With him you just have to consider that it’s slow growth across the board at a new level that he’s two years young for – it’s still really impressive stuff. Both of these guys still have a K% to keep in check, but have managed strong BB% through those issues. Payne is far more affordable right now – I’d go with him if you’re a believer in the power.\n\n## Hobby+\n\nFull Leaderboard\n\nWell, the 2026 Bowman release is less than two weeks in the rearview, and it’s becoming more and more evident by the day that our (my) writeup of Eric Hartman was light. It’s been an amazing season thus far for the 19 year old. I still have questions about how his hit tool ends up long-term, but we should absolutely just be enjoying the ride right now. Everyone’s eyes should be big in looking at what he’s done so far this season. There’s no major changes to his game – he hit the ball plenty hard last year, he’s still playing a good CF, he’s still using his plus wheels to great effect. He’s just elevating the ball a lot more this year, and there’s even a physical change (he lowered his hands a few inches) that’s allowed it to happen. There’s no reason to have trepidation with him this year. A promotion to AA should come within the next few weeks if he keeps this up. Unless you bought in early, you should be holding to see what that promotion brings, or even buying if you can slide in under the market by even a small percentage. But with Bowman being so new, there’s just no expectation of that being a common occurrence. There’s no recommendation here hobby-wise. He’s the hottest prospect in the sport, and his cards are in a new product – just not a lot I can say except get him where you can.\n\nDevin Fitz-Gerald (2025 Bowman) is also really breaking out, but it’s not due to such a drastic change in batted ball profile like Hartman. He’s elevating a little more, but it’s more of just a general want to do damage that’s helped him tremendously. He did change his hand position so he's holding his hands back less with the bat a bit more vertical – it’s a shorter swing – but it’s for the opposite reason that most hitters. He uses his lower half extremely well. So well that he doesn’t need a big unfurling with a long path in his swing. So now, what was already a high-contact swing with an excellent plane is now a setup and approach that’s very quick to the ball and also allows him to sell out with extreme effort in his lower half. It’s really amazing how he keeps his head on the ball. I think he will still end up as a hit-first prospect with average speed, and definitely more of a 2B than any of the other positions at which he’s currently being used. But this power ceiling is new, and if he can continue to retain all the hit-ability with it as he has, he’ll likely be at least an MLB regular, if not a 20-25 HR All-Star 2B type. It’s also worth noting that while he was an older 2024 prep, this is also just his first taste of High-A. Impressive stuff and a great get for the Nats in the MacKenzie Gore deal.\n\nBefore this year, Jacob Gonzalez (2023 Bowman Draft) never had an ISO over .130 at any stop. He never eclipsed a .240 average in any year. Hell, in two years since reaching the high minors his OBP was barely even .300. He was widely considered a bust of a 15th overall pick, even if he was on track to make it as a quad-A utility type. That’s all changed this year with a drastic change to his setup. So, plate setup 101 is that It’s common for hitters to sink into a deeper crouch as the pitch comes in. He now stands straight upright at the plate with his hands lower, and as the pitch comes in he barely even gets as low as he started previously. It’s just much, much simpler operations at the plate, and he’s put much more trust in his lower half without needing to force the effort. There’s no major changes to his batted ball profile – it’s just the quality of contact that has astronomically increased. He’s hitting the ball around 3.5 MPH harder on average, and his launch angle has been lowered to more ideal levels. He’s actually running a reasonable BABIP now, as opposed to being squarely in the .200’s previously. He’s also already in the career high in HR club at this early date, and his ISO has nearly tripled. As a guy who’s never had an issue with K and continues to run a good contact rate, he truly looks like a scary hitter as soon as the big club needs him. I wish I could say that I don’t think I’ll be writing about Jacob Gonzalez for much longer in this piece with the White Sox contending, but he’s not on the 40-man, and with Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, and Chase Meidroth holding down his positions I don’t think he’s coming soon. I also don’t think he's a valuable enough defensive piece to replace Luisangel Acuna in a bench role. His autographs have certainly shot up, but there’s still room to grow in the short term and time to buy, considering my forecast of his having to stick in AAA for a while yet.\n\nInsert Cornelius Fudge “he’s back” GIF here. Ethan Salas is now healthy and proving that he does indeed deserve to be at AA at age 19 – yep, he’s still 19 for another month. Obviously, there’s a lot of reason to believe that he’s now showing his true colors. His underlying data has always been good, and he has all the pedigree in the world. He’s now just finally making good on it all. That he’s hitting more line drives is the main reason, and that’s just a matter of being able to execute – he’s always had a swing that lends itself to that batted ball profile. It’s almost like he was rushed to levels when he wasn’t ready. Anyhow, I’m a believer, and you all should be too. We’ve been reality checked with Salas – just make your projections from what he’s showing now, and not whatever unrealistic thing you thought he was in 2023 Bowman Chrome, OK? I’ll also note, his defense has not made the jump with his offense just yet. But that’s fine for now.\n\nDeath, taxes, and Ralphy Velasquez (also 2023 Draft) near the top of Hobby+. Yaddah yaddah yaddah. We all know he’s good, and was just promoted to AAA after basically picking up where he left off last year. There’s no flags at all in his profile. The only question is if he ends up as an All-Star 1B, or if he only hits 20-25 HR with a decent average. He’ll be up by the end of the season – until then, he lives on my leaderboard rent free with a passing mention in every update.\n\n## Sleeper Pick\n\nThis year I'm going to write about 1-2 guys every time that due to writing this piece, I've made a purchase of, or thought really hard about making a purchase of. I wish I bought some Jose Fernandez last year after writing about him 5 times...that would have worked out pretty darn well. The Hobby is a pretty savvy bunch overall, so usually it's a guy in the back half of the Top 100 leaderboard.\n\nEven with Owen Carey injured, there are still three, count ‘em, three highly relevant hobby hitters at High-A Rome. We have Hartman of course, and John Gil. But we also have one Isaiah Drake. He’s my sleeper pick for this first Hobby+ period – a guy I found myself buying into. Defensively, and speed-wise, he’s Eric Hartman with a better arm. So – a great foundation. On the offensive side he’s shown solid progression from being an extremely raw prep bat in 2024, to holding his own in Low-A then getting a defense based promotion to High-A last year. But this year is where the offensive gains are truly popping off the page. He’s quieted his operations at the plate a little this year, and it’s resulted in an ability to get into a lot more offensive impact. He’s also already in the career high HR club, and has doubled his ISO from last year. There are still swing-and-miss and pitch selection concerns, but with as raw as he came in, it’s fair to think he's still on an exponential growth track. Card-wise, we’ve missed the exponential part, but there’s easily still room with his prices. I will always bet on an elite athlete who’s seeing real-baseball results.\n\nI’ll give a secondary sleeper nod to Malcolm Moore. The hobby has reacted a bit too much for my liking – I’m not all that into the C/1B archetype personally, and my personal thoughts is what this section is about. It’s why I’m not including affordable performers like Axiel Plaz here as well. Moore is now more hobby relevant than ever. It’s an interesting situation – it’s a good time to both buy and sell – just find the prices at which you’re willing. This season he’s gone from looking like a complete bust to putting up a 160 wRC+. I do believe that his success this year will translate at higher levels. That’s the caveat here too – he needs a promotion to AA, as he’ll be 23 before the season is out. So, if you can get a deal on a bulk lot, or find a pre-season price somewhere, he’s an absolute buy. His defensive gains coupled with this offensive goodness (not a breakout, he’s too old for High-A to call it that) should propel him to at least a backup catcher role in time. But that’s not a ceiling. He could still be a big-league regular, and one with some pop.\n\n## Conclusion\n\nThat'll do it for the 2026 inaugural edition of Hobby+. Lots of new faces, and new old faces here. We'll see if they can continue what they're doing over the course of the season. I look forward to talking about pitchers in the next update!",
  "title": "2026 Hobby+ Early Season",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-22T17:01:44.344Z"
}