the war with Iran over it's offensive launches on Israel, and now over the Strait of Hormuz, is set to cause another headache for car owners; it's leading to a shortage of synthetic oil according to Automotive News
automakers have begun rationing synthetic oil while dealerships and distributors are stockpiling it amid a severe reduction in supply.
This problem stems from the fact that nearly half of the Group III base oils used to make synthetic oil and other lubricants such as transmission fluid comes from the Middle East, and the war has essentially cut off that supply.
According to the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, the U.S. will likely run out of Group III base oils originating from the Gulf region by June, leading to a shortage that could last until at least mid-2027. Trouble is, this doesn't just impact existing vehicles needing synthetic oil changes or fresh transmission fluid - it also means that new vehicle production could come to a halt if automakers run completely out of those lubricants.
While the U.S. gets around 30 percent of its Group III base oils from South Korea, refiners in that country are also having issues getting crude oil from the Middle East, and the supply they do have is being used instead to make diesel and jet fuel. As for the possibility that blenders could instead utilize Group II base oils, which are typically present in conventional motor oil, supplies of that are also being routed to diesel, which is sitting at a 40-year high in terms of margins.
Just how a couple month of canal blockade results in a worldwide shortage of synth oil, is not explained.
It's 21 miles wide at the narrowest
Plus, already, the Saudi are making a transit route to bypass the Iranian controlled waters, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-emerges-as-gulfs-key-trade-route-as-iran-war-blocks-hormuz-strait/articleshow/131310656.cms in the event that the international powers decide to yellow belly away from an easily over powered 3rd world country half ass military that ANY super power ought to be able to negate if they had the motivation to get the job done, and change the situation permanently. One UN Navy squad posted on the Iranian coast ought to be able to neutralize any offensive, pinpoint the sources of offensive weapons, and knock them out. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-live-updates-peace-deal-053226292.html
Clearly, this is an opportunity for ANY superpower with a Navy to get REAL training on minesweeping, etc etc
On such limited resources, Iran isn't likely to be able to put up an offensive over who passes down the route from Iraq to the gulf.
In fact, the NY Times states that "Outmatched militarily, Iran used “triangular coercion” by attacking Gulf states and closing the Strait of Hormuz."
In this case, the third parties are both militarily vulnerable and economically important to the United States. Iran’s attacks against them early in the war, combined with its ability to effectively close the strait, have for now successfully thwarted a decisive victory for the United States and Israel. Clearly, the determination to win in a blitzkrieg was not there, and the people in charge were too busy getting fat and tracking their 401k results instead.
If the UAE were ready to seize the opportunity, they could make a Panama/Suez Canal type waterway, and have a 2ndary supply of perpetual income. Oil isn't unlimited, sooner or later, it's going to run out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/25/business/iran-strait-hormuz-shipping-traffic.html
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