Fed and ECB face a pivotal week as the oil shock revives inflation risk

The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank head into this week’s policy meetings in a far more uncertain environment than they faced just two weeks ago. The Fed meets on March 17-18, and the ECB on March 18-19, just after the Middle East war pushed oil prices above US$100 a barrel and forced markets to rethink the expected path of interest rates. Even so, neither institution is expected to change borrowing costs at these meetings.