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  "path": "/livestream-from-oscars-red-carpet/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-15T20:30:31.000Z",
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  "textContent": " \n\n\n\n\nIt’s just after 1 p.m. here in L.A., so depending on when you’re reading this, people may or may not be walking the Oscars red carpet yet. I expect we’ll start seeing familiar faces around 2 p.m., since the show starts at 4 p.m.. If you’re reading this after 5 p.m., the video player may not show anything, but maybe it’ll convert to what it recorded earlier.\n\nBelow are my predictions for who will win (and who _should_ win) in most of the major categories.\n\n**Actor in a Leading Role**\n\nWill win: Wagner Moura\n\nShould win: Wagner Moura\n\nI’m going out on a limb here, but I do believe Timmy and Michael B. Jordan split the votes.\n\n**Actress in a Leading Role**\n\nWill win: Jessie Buckley\n\nShould win: Rose Byrne\n\nThe most boring Best Actress race in years.\n\n**Actress in a Supporting Role**\n\nWill win: Amy Madigan\n\nShould win: Inga Ibsdotter\n\nMadigan deserves her win and I won’t be disappointed, as Aunt Gladys was iconic. But, if you saw _Sentimental Value_ , you know that Inga stole the movie with that last heartbreaking scene she had with her sister.\n\n**Actor in a Supporting Role**\n\nWill win: Stellan Skarsgård\n\nShould win: Stellan Skarsgård\n\nEveryone’s picking Sean Penn here, but I don’t think they’re gonna give a third Oscar to someone who had been expected to not even come to the show. The entire cast of _Sentimental Value_ was nominated (not to mention its other noms for Picture, Director, Screenplay, etc.), and I can’t see it not winning anything. This will be its one prize, and it’s well-deserved.\n\n**Best Casting**\n\nWill win: _Sinners_\n\nShould win: _Marty Supreme_\n\nEvery single person—from the hundreds of extras to the main cast members—in _Marty Supreme_ looked like they really belonged in 1950’s New York. Plus, they had Sandra Bernhard, Tyler the Creator, Abel Ferrara, Isaac Mizrahi, Fran Drescher, and more in small roles.\n\n**Documentary Feature Film**\n\nWill win: _The Perfect Neighbor_\n\nShould win: _Come See Me In The Good Light_\n\n**International Feature Film**\n\nWill win: _The Secret Agent_\n\nShould win: _The Secret Agent_\n\n**Directing**\n\nWill win: Paul Thomas Anderson\n\nShould win: Paul Thomas Anderson\n\nPTA should’ve won for _There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Magnolia,_ and _Boogie Nights_ , so this is one of those “career” Oscars.\n\n**Writing (Original Screenplay)**\n\nWill win: Ryan Coogler, _Sinners_\n\nShould win: Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, _Sentimental Value_\n\n**Writing (Adapted Screenplay)**\n\nWill win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another\n\nShould win: Will Tracy, _Bugonia_\n\nI didn’t love _Bugonia_ , but it’s the one movie that really had me guessing till the end, and I was quite surprised with how it turned out.\n\n**Best Picture\n**\n\nWill win: _One Battle After Another\n_\n\nShould win: _The Secret Agent_\n\nSome think _Sinners_ could win, and while it’s possible, you can’t ignore all the precursor wins for _OBAA_. I re-watched both movies, and while they each have outstanding moments and some of the most brilliant filmmaking I’ve ever seen (the car chase in _OBAA_ , the music/dance scene in _Sinners_), they’re both similar in that their stories are weak, if not incoherent. _OBAA_ starts as a political thriller about revolutionaries, and then it turns into a father/daughter comedy that satirizes the revolutionaries and white supremacists (the Christmas Adventurers Club!) it had been seriously examining in the first half. It’s like, am I supposed to care? The first half of _Sinners_ was a captivating depiction of the Jim Crow south with rich characters, great music, and beautiful scenery, but once they get to the big vampire fight, there’s zero tension and no real stakes. I suddenly didn’t care about anyone. _The Secret Agent_ is far superior in terms of storytelling and cohesiveness with the most timely and timeless message of all the nominees, and it would have my vote.\n\nMy ranking of the Best Picture noms (note that I didn’t and will never see _F1, Frankenstein, or Hamnet_):\n\n",
  "title": "Livestream From Oscars Red Carpet"
}