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  "path": "/t/clustering-in-the-denominator-non-independence-of-starts-in-racing-fatality-studies/28662#post_5",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-31T08:04:51.000Z",
  "site": "https://discourse.datamethods.org",
  "tags": [
    "Gordian Knot - Wikipedia",
    "Efficient-market hypothesis - Wikipedia"
  ],
  "textContent": "trumanfrancis:\n\n> Any pointers to relevant literature or analogous problems in other fields would be very welcome.\n\nJames, often your outlook on these problems seems to be that of a _reviewer_ of a paper, which I think puts you at a disadvantage very much like that of the Gordian Knot - Wikipedia. Better simply to cut through the thing!\n\nThe whole problem set-up here reminds me of the Efficient-market hypothesis - Wikipedia. There are (I am guessing) many well-informed actors — trainers, vets, jockeys — making _decisions_ about when/whether/how to race a horse. These decisions are also made on the basis of _private_ information, even such as a trainer’s ‘gut feel’ I would suppose. So the risks a statistician might hope to detect have already been thoroughly ‘priced in’.\n\nOne way to cut the knot would be to posit a rational-actors model, and attempt to relate the risk of fatal MSI to the (time-dependent) economic value of the horse to its owners, who would be viewed as solving some kind of stochastic optimization problem.",
  "title": "Clustering in the denominator: non-independence of starts in racing fatality studies"
}