The lake has peaked. Here is where Ontario stands, and what Webster built since the last time it got bad.

Lake Ontario has reached its seasonal peak at approximately 247.4 feet (75.40 m IGLD 1985), as of the week ending May 27. The lake is leveling off and is expected to begin a slow seasonal decline. For most of Webster's shoreline, that is worth knowing: the lake is still elevated, running about 13 inches above the long-term May average, but the peak has arrived without triggering emergency conditions.

The level of approximately 247.4 feet (75.40 m) IGLD 1985, as of the week of May 27, is about 13 inches higher than the long-term May average, according to the Army Corps of Engineers' May 22 bulletin, and 16 inches above this time last year. The IJC had forecast average conditions would put the seasonal peak between 247.4 and 247.7 feet. The lower bound of that range has now been reached. The lake is not expected to reach 247.7 feet under current forecasts.

"We're not going to see levels like 2017 and 2019 for sure," said Bernie Gigas, a member of the IJC's Public Advisory Group, in early May. That assessment has held: the lake leveled below those historic records. Tony David, the U.S. board member on the IJC's International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, described conditions as approaching their seasonal peak as of mid-May. "I think we're very close to observing peak," he said.

The message from both officials: elevated, but not extraordinary.

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Who controls the lake, and how

This is the question readers ask every spring, and it deserves a straight answer: nobody controls Lake Ontario's level in any simple sense. Weather does most of the work.

The IJC, a U.S.-Canada treaty body created under the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty, manages outflows from Ontario into the St. Lawrence River. It does this through a single control structure: the Moses-Saunders Power Dam at Massena, N.Y. and Cornwall, Ontario. Each Thursday, the IJC's board calculates the week's prescribed outflow based on Ontario's current level, inflows from Lake Erie, local precipitation and Ottawa River forecasts. The dam operators adjust releases accordingly.

But the lever has limits. As the Army Corps of Engineers put it earlier this spring: weather systems can raise lake levels by feet, while human-controlled outflows generally influence levels by only inches.

The current regulatory framework is called Plan 2014, which took effect in January 2017, replacing the prior operating plan, Plan 1958-D. The new plan incorporated environmental goals absent from the old one, including allowing more natural water-level fluctuations to restore roughly 64,000 acres of coastal wetlands. Plan 2014 operates within three guardrails: the F-limit prevents downstream flooding on Lake St. Louis; the J-limit caps how sharply outflows can change week-to-week to protect river navigation; the M-limit preserves minimum levels for water intakes and hydropower during dry periods.

This spring, the board activated the F-limit on April 16, restricting outflows to protect downstream St. Lawrence River communities from flooding even as Ontario's level rose. Between March 1 and April 30, the lake climbed about 2.5 feet, double the long-term average April rise of 8 inches. The F-limit was lifted May 7, after which outflow was set to the Plan 2014 standard of 8,010 cubic meters per second. That transition is the primary reason the lake stabilized at its current level rather than continuing to climb.

Plan 2014 attracted significant political controversy after the 2017 and 2019 flooding years, including a 2019 lawsuit by New York State against the IJC. The IJC and independent analysis have consistently attributed the flooding to precipitation rather than to the regulatory plan itself.

What happened in 2017 and 2019

Both years set benchmarks that now frame every spring conversation about Ontario.

In 2017, the lake peaked near 248.9 feet in late May, exceeding regulatory thresholds at the end of April. In 2019, it went higher still, reaching a new record of approximately 249 feet in mid-June. Both events caused widespread shoreline erosion, flooded roads and structures, and inflicted damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars across the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence shoreline.

The IJC's own analysis cites basin-wide precipitation over multiple years as the primary driver, along with record Lake Erie inflows. In 2019, a concurrent record Ottawa River freshet compounded conditions on the St. Lawrence end.

The 2026 peak of approximately 247.4 feet sits roughly 1.5 feet below the 2019 record.

What Webster built in response

When the water finally receded in 2019, New York State launched the Lake Ontario Resiliency and Economic Development Initiative, known as REDI, directing state money toward communities that had absorbed the most damage.

Webster's projects were part of a roughly $10.4 million Monroe County investment through the state's REDI program and Local Waterfront Revitalization Program. Construction started in April 2022 and finished in October 2023. Four specific projects were completed:

Lake Road (West End): $1.5 million to raise and realign 2,000 linear feet of roadway along the shoreline and install 2,700 feet of closed drainage with outlets to Irondequoit Bay. The road serves more than 70 homes and businesses that previously faced emergency closures during high-water events.

Sandbar Park shoreline: $748,000 for a living shoreline stabilization embankment and a masonry flood wall on the Lake Ontario and Irondequoit Bay waterfront. The park's sandbar had previously been buffered with dolomite boulders against wave energy from Ontario; the REDI work formalized and extended that protection.

Sandbar Wastewater Pump Station: $250,000 for a masonry flood wall around the control building at the pump station on Irondequoit Bay, protecting its electrical and mechanical equipment from inundation.

Sandbar Park amenities: $2.28 million for parking, restrooms, a kayak launch, floating docks, a children's play area and a lakefront promenade, funded through the state's Local Waterfront Revitalization Program.

At the October 2023 completion event, Governor Hochul said: "Many shoreline communities along Lake Ontario bore the brunt of climate change's effects through severe storms and historic flooding events of 2019, but through New York's REDI program, we are making strategic investments to make the region safer for its residents and visitors."

This is the infrastructure that meets this spring's rising water. It did not exist in 2019.

What to watch through June

The IJC outflow page updates weekly and reflects the board's most recent release decisions. That is the most direct gauge of how the commission is managing conditions in real time.

The lake is at or near its seasonal peak and is expected to stabilize or slowly decline through June. Monroe County shoreline communities including Greece, Webster and Irondequoit took preparation posture this spring, with sandbags staged, but no flooding events or emergency declarations have been documented in Webster or Monroe County in 2026.

For context: all five Great Lakes remain 26 to 50 inches above their record-low May levels, a reminder of how wide the range of outcomes can be from year to year.

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AI tools were used in drafting and research.