The carbon market urgently needs corresponding adjustment

Carbon market regulation in Brazil has finally entered a phase of maturity that deserves recognition. Recent discussions within Conaredd (the National REDD+ Commission) reveal a growing awareness on the part of the Brazilian government of the strategic role this market can play not only in the climate agenda, but also in the country’s economic development. One of the central points of this debate is the regulation of Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which establishes the foundations for a global carbon market with environmental integrity. For this mechanism to function fully, it is essential to allow the sale of carbon credits with the so-called corresponding adjustment — that is, the removal of those credits from the national accounting system so they can be used by companies to meet their emissions reduction targets. Until recently, there was a legitimate concern within the government that this transfer of credits could compromise Brazil’s ability to fulfill its NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution). That concern, however, has been revisited in light of more precise data. Credits generated by private projects represent, at most, 5% of the country’s total emissions. This is a relatively small fraction that does not threaten the achievement of national targets. On the contrary, these credits create a concrete opportunity for generating income, jobs, and tax revenues. By allowing their export with corresponding adjustments, Brazil would not only attract investment, but could also establish taxation mechanisms capable of strengthening environmental public policies and the governance structure of the domestic carbon market itself. Revenues generated by this market can — and should — be directed toward command-and-control measures, which are essential for forest conservation and, consequently, for achieving the country’s NDC. In this context, accepting corresponding adjustments ceases to be a concession and becomes an instrument of climate policy. Instead of competing with national objectives, private projects become strategic allies. This dynamic is particularly evident in the aviation sector, regulated under Corsia (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). Recently, a major airline sought to acquire 600,000 carbon credits in Brazil. The transaction, however, depended on a corresponding adjustment — a requirement under Corsia itself. Unable to obtain that authorization in Brazil, the company turned to Colombia, which already offers this mechanism. Chile and Guyana are moving in the same direction. The outcome is clear: Brazil is losing business to its neighbors. And this is not just any market. Credits acquired under Corsia command significantly higher prices than those traded in the traditional voluntary market. Moreover, global demand is expanding rapidly. Major corporations such as Microsoft have been purchasing significant volumes of credits, anticipating a trend that is likely to intensify in the coming years. But this window of opportunity will not remain open indefinitely. As more countries structure their carbon markets and international rules become consolidated, the space for new entrants grows narrower. Brazil, with its comparative advantage in nature-based solutions, cannot afford to miss this moment. That is why the recent evolution in the government’s understanding deserves to be highlighted. There is a growing recognition that the regulation of Law 15,042 and the establishment of mechanisms compatible with Article 6 are not merely international requirements, but strategic opportunities. There is also a pressing timeline: by law, this regulation must be concluded by the end of the year. Brazil has already demonstrated, at other moments in history, its ability to lead complex global agendas. In the carbon market, that leadership now depends on building a regulatory framework that combines environmental integrity, legal certainty, and long-term vision. The signals emerging from the discussions within Conaredd indicate that we are on the right path. What remains is to move forward with the urgency that the moment demands. Mais Lidas