Of Course He Did

Remember serial (and surreal) fraudster and former Congressman George Santos? Well, he is back in the news, because he announced that he would be attending the State of the Union address and then bet that he would not be there on Kalshi, and then did not show up. > George Santos may be the latest individual caught trading on insider information in a prediction market. > > According to NPR, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is examining whether the former New York congressman placed bets on Kalshi using nonpublic details about his own plans. The market in question centered on whether Santos would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February. > > In the days leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos posted a video on X stating he would appear in the event. That public confirmation pushed the odds of his attendance on Kalshi close to 75% the night before the event, drawing millions of dollars in wagers across related markets. Santos did not show up to the State of the Union address, however. During the speech he posted on X that he was watching from an airport television instead. The odds on his attendance collapsed shortly afterward. The first thing learned (more accurately re-learned) is that George Santos is a cheap bunco artist. The second thing learned is that this is a feature, and not a bug of the, "Prediction markets."