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  "path": "/2026/03/predictive-markets-my-hairy-white.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-05T02:55:00.001Z",
  "site": "https://40yrs.blogspot.com",
  "tags": [
    "make book on the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Iran",
    "bet",
    "generated significant controversy",
    "tweeting",
    "bet itself",
    "reported"
  ],
  "textContent": "Polymarket decided that it would be a keen idea to make book on the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Iran.\n\nOnce the news got out, people were horrified, and they backed down.\n\n> The crypto-based prediction sensation Polymarket has quietly taken down a bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated before next year.\n>\n> The bet, which was first listed last November, generated significant controversy on social media Tuesday after it was flagged by several users.\n>\n> Polymarket had also highlighted the bet on its official X account that day, tweeting that its market now predicted there was a 22 percent chance a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year. The post has since been deleted — and the bet itself has now been “archived” as of Wednesday morning.\n>\n> ………\n>\n> The _Wall Street Journal_reported that the nuclear detonation bet had spiked in popularity after the US and Israel’s deadly strikes in Iran. Before the attacks broke out, only $10,000 in bets had been placed on Friday, according to data from the _Block_ cited by the newspaper. But on Tuesday, the daily trading volume had surged to almost $244,000, bringing the total amount of money on the line to over $830,000.\n\nAnyone want to take a bet on whether senior executives at Polymarket will eventually be frog-marched out of their offices in handcuffs. (My bet is never)",
  "title": "\"Predictive Markets,\" My Hairy White Flabby Ass!",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-05T07:23:15.848Z"
}